If just a year ago, the novelty in the magic numbers of Alberto Fernandez It was the unprecedented support of Macrista voters, today the surprise comes with the growth of the disenchanted themselves. A sector of the voters of the Frente de Todos rejects his figure and his way of managing, and even begins to hold him responsible for the current economic crisis above Mauricio Macri. Bye inheritance.
In this complex context, The analysts’ doubt is whether the President touched his floor. One piece of information can represent a relief: its performance in public opinion studies begins to blend in with that of Cristina Kirchner. And the hard sector that supports the vice president maintains its unconditional status with him as well.
It would actually be a double edged sword Because just as his closeness -subordination for some- with the former president guarantees him a base of sustenance, that same factor would prevent him from growing again. Not only because of not being able to recover that utopian accompaniment of Juntos por el Cambio voters, but also because of the difficulty to reconquer his own followers, more moderate, who reject the current version of Fernández.
Fall in personal image and management
From different parameters, all the consulting firms agree that the President had reached his personal image climax between March and April 2020. Within the voters themselves, this meant almost perfection, with a positive assessment of more than 90%. Today, that support fell between 10 and 20 points. And the numbers of Fernández were very close to those of hard Kirchnerists, such as Cristina or Axel Kicillof.
This is shown by the latest study by D’Alessio IROL – Berensztein. The President has 40 general evaluation points in favor, divided as follows: 78% positive among FdT voters, + 1% among JxC voters, and + 19% among third-party voters. Similar to the vice (+ 70%, + 0% and + 11%) and the Buenos Aires governor (+ 77%, + 1% and + 14%).
In parallel, two other consulting firms show a similar drop in discharge. Always within the voters themselves, both for Opinion as for Real Time Data lost 23 points in one year. In the first case, it dropped from 99% to 76%; in the second, from 97% to 74%.
Fall for the economy and inheritance
An interesting question that you have been asking Opinion in its monthly monitoring is: “What is the main reason why the country is in this economic situation?”. At a general level, 59% blame the “mismanagement of the Government of Alberto Fernández” and 14% the “mismanagement of the Government of Mauricio Macri.”
But when the trim with voters of the Frente de Todos, the difference between the two points is only six points: 34% point to Macri and 28% to Fernández. Small difference for an ruling party that continues to appeal to “inheritance” to justify most of its evils.
The survey of D’Alessio IROL – Berensztein provides another piece of information. Among the voters of Alberto and Cristina, the biggest concern is inflation. The same as between the voters of Macri and Pichetto. And the Government has just announced its own record of 4.8% for the last month.
Rejection by schools and drop in votes
As advanced Clarion over the weekend, the decision to close schools in the Metropolitan Area also pierced the rift. In this case, a national study of Management & Fit which addressed the controversy.
Within voters K, a 34.9% did not support the latest restrictions announced by Fernández; a 25.5% agreed with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, which accused the President of changing his strategy due to the lack of vaccines; and 30.3% also agreed with the head of the Buenos Aires government, who argued that face-to-face classes do not increase infections.
All this combo, which has been evolving for several months, was shaping what analysts call “the disenchanted”. And two polls in April put a number on that group.
Reale Dalla Tower made a general statement. “Regarding Alberto Fernández, would you say that …?”. A 3. 4% of those consulted chose “I’m disappointed”. It was the highest number among four answer options.
SynopsisMeanwhile, it has been measuring the electoral impact of this disenchantment. According to their latest survey, they already reach 23.9% voters of the Frente de Todos that now would bow for another force. More than 17% of “does not know / does not answer”, so that fidelity, in a year and a peak of management, was reduced to less than 60% compared to 2019.
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