The French prime minister, François Bayrou, and his budgets have survived on Wednesday at the first of the two censorship motions of the left -wing party France Insumisa (LFI) thanks to the new oxygen ball launched by the socialists.
The training led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon had thus responded to the use of article 49.3 of the Constitution to approve without vote the bill on State Budget and the first part of the bill of the Social Security Budget.
In case of prospering, the motion would have forced the prime minister to present his resignation and would have blocked the budgetary texts. It has only had the votes of the deputies LFI, the environmentalists and the representatives of the Republican and Democratic left parliamentary group (which includes the Communist and Allies), with a total of 128 in favor, far from the necessary majority. It has not been supported by the Socialist Party (PS), whose deputies have widely followed the vote discipline.
After “many hesitation”, the socialist deputies had decided to “give a budget to France,” as confirmed on Tuesday the first secretary of the party, Olivier Faure. In recent weeks the PS and the Executive had negotiated the introduction of certain measures defended by the socialists in the texts in exchange for not censoring the budgets. The deputies of the extreme right, who did not announce their intentions before the vote, have also abstained, although their support was no longer key.
“This is the moment of truth, this is the week of truth and responsibility,” Bayrou had warned on Monday, insisting on the consequences that a new blockade would have to the budgets for this year (in December an emergency law allowed temporarily prolong those of the previous exercise), in addition to a new fall of the government.
To get ahead, the motion of censure needs a majority of favorable votes in the Assembly (289 of 577). In the current chamber configuration, that requires the joint vote of the vast majority of left and extreme right deputies (192 progressive deputies and 140 of the Le Pen party and its allies). That was what happened last December when Michel Barnier tried to impose her version of the Social Security budget through the same mechanism as Bayrou.
NFP uncertain future
In this case, the socialist decision leaves in the air the future of the coalition of progressive forces gathered in the alliance of the new Popular Front (NFP). “This non-cense will now produce the effects we already know and that are the reason why its authors have decided: the NFP is reduced from a game,” wrote Jean-Luc Mélenchon in his blog. However, their communist allies and environmentalists have been less categorical and advocate to maintain the alliance.
“I do not agree with the vote of the Socialists (…) but as a partner, I have to respect it,” said RTL Marine Tondelier, general secretary of environmentalists. “And when I listen to Jean-Luc Mélenchon all day announcing to the end of the NFP, because it does not seem intelligent. Or we explain that it is the end of the NFP, because we have all decided, or we decided that the alliance has to survive and overcome it. ”
Abstention from Le Pen
After the official announcement of the Socialists that censorship would not vote, the position of the extreme right deputies had lost relevance. Without socialist votes, the motion of censure could not prosper. In the days before the vote, the members of the National Group Party (RN) had given indications that the motion would not vote, although the French media doubt what the meaning of the vote would have been if there had been a real real possibility to drop the Bayrou.
The motion of censure after the activation of article 49.3 was the time chosen by Marine Le Pen to add their votes to those on the left and make Michel Barnier fall, who had negotiated with the extreme right a censorship agreement.
After saving the motions, François Bayrou will activate article 49.3 for the other two parts of the Social Security budget, according to the government spokeswoman Sophie Primas, during the press conference that the Council of Ministers followed on Wednesday. The foreseeable censorship motions that will follow these measures will predictably have the same result as this Wednesday. “We should have a complete budget officially adopted in mid -February and promulgated at the end of the month,” added the spokeswoman.
Next motion of censure of the Socialists
The failure of this motion of censure implies an important oxygen ball for the prime minister, who nevertheless continues in a situation of fragility, not having a majority that supports them in the National Assembly. Although the future of the rest of the budgetary texts seems guaranteed with abstention, it is complicated that an ambitious legislative agenda that includes broad agreements on great social issues can be carried out.
In fact, the PS has announced that they will also present a motion of censure, once the budgetary texts have been approved, to express their disagreement with the Prime Minister. Bayrou triggered a controversy last week by evoking an alleged “feeling of submersion” that the French have before immigration, echoing the usual rhetoric of the extreme right.
The motion will be a symbolic gesture, since the socialists themselves admit not to want State ”, as Olivier Faure has recognized this week.
The Socialist Party has that the extreme right will not vote in favor of its motion of censure filed by the use of Bayrou of a term coined and usually used by its members. However, it is a strategy that involves risks, since Marine Le Pen could decide to vote the censorship presented by the Socialists and then justify the vote before public opinion for other reasons.
This fragility makes Bayrou, in parallel to their negotiations with the socialists, has continued to send some winks to the extreme right in recent weeks, with which it does not rule out specific negotiations. “I look at all those who are willing to censor or support us; I am not interested in going to a single group or a single block, ”he had recognized this week in a parliamentary intervention.
In addition to his statements about immigration, Bayrou had estimated that he would consider as “unfair” European.
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