The final challenge will be the same as in 2017, but be careful to assume that it will end the same way. Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen, Marine Le Pen against Emmanuel Macron: the two contenders of five years ago will meet against each other on April 24 for the ballot of the French presidential elections. And it was not a foregone conclusion, that of the first round. At least it wasn’t until a few months ago. Yes, because the French have not re-elected a president with a parliamentary majority since 1965. Those were the times of Charles De Gaulle and the Cold War, the first. Macron now hopes to emulate his famous predecessor in another historical moment characterized by great geopolitical tensions.
But it was not obvious even for Le Pen to be able to return to play for the Elysée in a match for two. Yes, because Louis Zemmour’s candidacy seemed made to destroy his dreams of glory, with some of his supporters exodus to the well-known polemicist, including his ex-beloved nephew Marion Marechal. Instead, Zemmour has failed and in view of the ballot could even represent a fundamental help for the rival of the sovereign field. Le Pen takes advantage of a new scenario in which an unprecedented French-style bipolarity has been created in which she may be disadvantaged but still represents one of the two halves.
The gap between Macron and Le Pen is actually wider than what happened in 2017. So Macron scored 24% of the votes in the first round, against 21.3% for Le Pen. Today, however, the difference is around 5-6 percentage points. A good tally, with Macron going beyond expectations. According to French analysts, the better outcome than expected of the outgoing president (who actually hopes not to leave the Elysée) would also be due to some fears of the moderates about relations between the extreme right and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, with which Le Pen has always had a great relationship.
The reality appears simpler: traditional parties have literally disappeared. Five years ago they had already done badly, but now the Republicans and Socialists are really at their lowest point. Valérie Pécresse, Gaullist candidate, stopped at 5.1%, the worst result in history for a party that has ruled France for decades. Yet the results of last year’s local elections seemed to have brought back the center-right moderates.
The center-left is even worse. Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, gained just 1.9%. A catastrophe that could be fatal for the socialists, who after François Mitterrand never met again and with the weak presidency of Francçois Hollande, marked by Macron’s final “betrayal”, entered a spiral of crisis from which they no longer seem able to get out. Even Yannick Jadot’s Greens (4.4%) have arrived in front of the socialists.
And, of course, the far left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. With a completely reversed perspective compared to the past, it is precisely the leader of La France Insoumise who catalyzed the “useful vote” of the left. Hoisting above 20%. Mélenchon has already announced that this would be his last election campaign and he conducted it in the best possible way, without however being able to hit the historic result of the ballot. Behind him, in fourth place, the polemicist Zemmour with 7.1%. A result far below expectations for the one who had to disrupt the order of the radical right.
Again, Le Pen attracted the helpful vote. But perhaps more than that. He defeated the opponent for an electoral campaign conducted in the best way. Zemmour’s candidacy offered Le Pen the chance to do something she had never been able to do in her long political past: move towards the center-right and dilute the radical wing that has always punished her in the second round where the French tend to vote for the more moderate candidate. Le Pen built his electoral campaign on very concrete issues. A way to remove the usual criticisms of extremism but also to be perceived as closer to ordinary people than a Macron who often talks about maximum systems but almost never about everyday things. Even the contingency, that is the war in Ukraine and the rotating presidency of France in the EU, pushed the French president to focus on the great geopolitical design. Leaving aside arguments perhaps more close to the heart of the common French.
And so Le Pen focused on reducing VAT, with the proposal to bring it from 20% to 5.5% on petrol, gas and electricity. Le Pen then proposes the nationalization of motorways and pushes for the strengthening of the purchasing power of citizens of the lower social classes. With the usual outline of a “boost” to security, a theme that has never disappeared from the wave of attacks that began in 2013. Le Pen presents Macron as a symbol of arrogant power and herself as the candidate next door.
Now, however, as always, a completely different game opens up. That of the ballot, with a choice that becomes more marked between black and white and that traditionally sees Le Pen underdog. Yet the second round promises to be tight, according to the polls published Sunday evening, which see all Macron winning but practically with a minimum gap (51% -49% according to Ifop; 52-48% according to Elabe; 54% – 46% according to Ipsos and Opinionway; 54.5% – 45.5% on Odoxa). All light years away from the result of 2017, when Macron won with 66.1% against 33.9%.
A victory never questioned, as shown by the Economist model which in 2017 assigned Le Pen a one in hundred chance of winning, while now assigns him 21%. An infinitely higher percentage. Obviously, the phase of appeals to the vote of the defeated leaders has already begun. As expected, Pécresse and Hidalgo sided with Macron. Not a big favor, actually, given the paucity of their results and the ease with which Le Pen will brand this support as a further sign that Macron represents the traditional establishment of the French political scene.
But even the compact far left has gone out of his way for Macron. Even somewhat surprising, given that Mélenchon’s campaign was in some ways similar to that of Le Pen and had been characterized by repeated attacks against Macron. “You don’t have to give Marine Le Pen a single vote,” Mélenchon said after yesterday’s vote. Zemmour obviously sided with Le Pen.
But beware, one thing is the announcements of the leaders and another the real intentions of the voters. To think that all Mélenchon voters will really vote for Macron seems a hasty conclusion. In fact, Mélenchon speaks to an electorate in some ways similar to that of Le Pen. People angry for the Macron presidency and with attention to the issue of purchasing power. Voters who could see continuity with Le Pen, more than with Macron, in view of the second round. In his speeches, Melenchon often addressed the far-right voters, defined as “angry but not fascist” in a dialoguing way. About a third of those who vote for Melenchon next Sunday would be ready to vote for Le Pen in the event of a runoff against Macron.
Adding up the votes of Le Pen, Zemmour, Mélenchon and other minor candidates from the radical camp, we arrive at well over 50%. This means that the game is far from over. “I want to reach all those who want to work for France”, said Emmanuel Macron, asking to found, beyond “differences”, “a great political movement of unity and action”. Marine Le Pen, who wants to be the “president of all the French people”, invited “all those who did not vote” for Emmanuel Macron to “join” her for the “great alternation that France needs”.
The challenge is open, perhaps even more open than it seems.
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