“It is the biggest electoral surprise in our history,” summed up political analyst Alain Duhamel on the BFM channel after learning the results. Results of the legislative elections for the National Assembly in France this Sunday.
According to the criteria of
After starting as the favorite in the polls, and having obtained a key vote during the first round on June 30, the far-right party of Marine Le Pen, National Grouping (RN, for its acronym in French), was relegated as the third parliamentary forceaccording to the distribution of seats.
In total, some 200 candidates, with less chance of winning, resigned from their electoral jurisdictions to make way for the candidate with the best chance of defeating their RN rival. This tacit alliance was called the “republican front.”
The left-wing coalition – represented by the New Popular Front (NFP) – made the big electoral turnaround of the dayaccording to projections, and became the movement with the most deputies in the entire Assembly.
The centrist bloc of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, formed by three parties, it was ranked second in the results with a decline in the number of deputies it obtained in the last legislature, But this is a less pronounced drop than expected after the first round.In fact, polls put him in third place.
However, none of the three main French political forces obtained the 289 deputies necessary for an absolute majority.In an Assembly of 577 deputies, the figure of 289 is only achievable with agreements that right now seem unlikely.
In fact, since this Sunday The balance of power has already begun to show its first tensions on the political scene and governability in France will enter a very uncertain phase.
Below are four key points about why the polls were wrong in their predictions and how the country’s governance stands.
How many seats did each political bloc win in France?
The New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, which includes, among others, Socialist Party and La France Insoumise (LFI) of Jean-Luc Mélenchonachieved in total 182 deputiesto which are added 13 independent leftists.
Macronism, which in the final count also greatly improved the polls’ forecasts for these elections, falls only to second position in the National Assembly, with 168 legislators.
The other side of the coin is the far-right formation National Grouping (RN, French acronym), which started out as the favourite – and even had the possibility of an absolute majority after its victory in the first round on 30 June – will have to settle for third place, with its allies having 143 seats.
The conservative Republicans will take 45 seats, while other right-wing independent candidates will do the same with another 15 seats in the lower house.
Why did the far right fail to achieve the expected results?
Given the fears that Marine Le Pen’s party arouses in some sectors, the implicit pacts between the ruling party and the left-wing coalition, consisting of concentrating the vote on the candidate with the best chance of defeating RN in each constituency in the run-off, frustrated the victory of the extreme right.
In total, some 200 candidates, with less chance of winning, resigned from their electoral jurisdictions to make way for the candidate with the best chance of defeating their RN rival. This tacit alliance was called “the republican front”
Despite this strong disappointment, the RN achieved a historic result, well above the 89 deputies in 2022, which already represented an exceptional jump from the 8 they had in 2017.
It is worth remembering that the RN party – originally called the National Front and whose name was changed in 2018 – was founded in 1972 by former Nazi soldiers and collaborators of the Vichy regime. Jean-Marine Le Pen was its most prominent figure and in the 1990s he was convicted for denying the crimes of Nazi Germany.However, Marine Le Pen has tried to change the face of the movement since she took over in 2011,
“She wanted to mark a break with her father’s past. And she wanted to clean up the image they had regarding issues like the Holocaust or Judaism,” she explains to BBC World Gaspard Estrada, a political scientist at Sciences Po, has condemned Hamas attacks against Israel, although he also maintains openly anti-immigrant positions.
A government of this formation would have been the first far-right government in France since the Liberation of Nazi Germany during the Second World War and a new one in the European Union, together with Italy, among others.
Why, if there is a “republican front”, is there a period of uncertainty opening up in France?
France is not a country that is used to political alliances in the Assembly.
The French president will wait to know the “structure” of the new Assembly, which is due to elect its president on July 18, before deciding who he will call to form a government, his office announced.
During the campaign, several hypotheses emerged: a coalition between the left and the ruling party, or even a technocratic government with parliamentary support in the second largest economy in the European Union.
“We will have to behave like adults,” said Raphaël Glucksmann, a symbol of the social democratic wing of the NFP.
But a possible coalition seems unlikely given the cross-criticism between Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left), an important partner of the NFP, and Macron’s alliance, which accused the party of being “anti-parliamentary” and “anti-Semitic”.
“We’re going to have to behave like adults,” said Raphael Glucksmann, a symbol of the social-democratic wing of the NFP, who believes that “dialogue” is “a change of political culture” in a France that is not used to parliamentarism.
Whoever manages to impose majorities through alliances will hold the keys to defining governability in France for years to come. While in France the president is the most important position, with the power to introduce decrees, the Assembly is key to approving key legislative projects, approving budgets and amending the Constitution. In addition, the lower house has the power to overthrow the cabinet through motions of censure and to appoint the prime minister.
How many people went out to vote?
In a sign that the vote was crucial, the official turnout figure of 67 percent was the highest since 1981, and even former Socialist president François Hollande returned to politics and won a seat.
INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
*With AFP and Efe
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