France assumes, this Saturday (1st), the rotating presidency of the European Union with numerous ongoing problems, from the spread of omicron to tensions with Russia over Ukraine, but which may benefit Emmanuel Macron in the next presidential elections.
The 44-year-old president has never hidden his ambition to be the engine of greater European integration, partnering with the now former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
After Merkel’s retirement and with the temporary presidency of the Council of Europe, Macron announced an ambitious agenda for the 27-nation bloc that could serve his campaign for re-election in France.
“The year 2022 should be a time of change for Europe,” he declared in his New Year’s Eve message, in which he praised the EU’s role in the covid-19 crisis.
“This presidency offers him a platform to calibrate his European influence, distinguish himself from some competitors and come up with new demands, new ideas”, summarizes Claire Demesmay, a researcher at the Franco-German Marc-Bloch center in Berlin.
As of today, France replaces Slovenia and will chair for six months the Council of the European Union, which represents the interests of the 27 Member States before the European Commission and Parliament.
Paris is counting on using this influence to push some issues forward and get commitments from her partners, although her role as an impartial mediator prevents her from being judge and party.
French ministers will chair the meetings of their European colleagues in their respective areas (agriculture, health, interior…).
France’s 13th pro tempore presidency since 1958 – the first since 2008 – coincides with the race for the April 10 and 24 presidential elections and the June legislative elections.
“France will (in fact) have a very short time for the presidency and a very ambitious agenda. Three months is very, very short”, points out Claire Demesmay.
– “European leadership” –
Emmanuel Macron, elected in 2017 with a very pro-European program, set the objective of this presidency pro tempore to be “a powerful Europe in the world”.
“He cannot reach the first round, on April 10, without having obtained some results from his European presidency. This will be the challenge, but also a real opportunity”, considers Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris.
The future French presidency has put forward three priorities on which it hopes to achieve results: a minimum wage across the European Union, regulation of the digital giants and a carbon tax at the borders.
The summit of heads of state and government on March 10 and 11 in France, which will address the reform of the stability and growth pact, could be “a political masterstroke”, believes Maillard.
“Offering a show of strength, surrounded by their counterparts a month before the first round, can strengthen their stature”, he points out.
Crises are also important platforms. In 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy emerged as European leader during the financial crisis resulting from the Lehman Brothers bank failure and the Russian military offensive in Georgia.
Macron can make Europe’s voice heard in upcoming negotiations between Russia and the United States on the future of Ukraine and security in Europe.
“History offers him an opportunity (to bring out) a European vision” in these challenges, estimated Michel Duclos, former ambassador, in a column in French daily L’Opinion.
But the pro-European bet is risky in one of the most Eurosceptic countries, where the EU is seen as distant and bureaucratic. Only 29% of French people want more integration into the community, against 50% of Italians and 43% of Germans, according to a EuropaNova study for the Journal du Dimanche (JDD).
“The EU presidency can contribute to correcting this perception by proposing an incarnation of Europe, for the benefit of and in the person of Emmanuel Macron”, says Pierre Sellal, former French representative to the EU.
“Furthermore, the French like nothing more than the feeling of a France in charge, which inspires, leads and directs”, he adds.
But the new wave of covid-19 that shakes Europe could spoil the “party” of 400 meetings and events scheduled across France.
Macron must also show skill in his meetings with partners who will be “severe” if they see “attempts to instrumentalize the presidency for electoral purposes,” warns Sellal.
In Germany, which will assume the G7 presidency at the same time, the new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, may feel pressured by the French leader’s aspirations.
Back in 2017, right after his election, Macron “put his German neighbor into trouble two days after the legislative elections in Germany, with his speech at the Sorbonne and very ambitious proposals on Europe,” analyzed the German newspaper Süddeutche Zeitung.
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