France Researcher: French elections show how deeply polarized French society is and there is great uncertainty on the horizon

Researcher Gwenaëlle Bauvois recalls the importance of the June parliamentary elections. France may get a coalition government.

French president Emmanuel Macron was elected on Sunday for a further period of five years. Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Helsinki Gwenaëlle Bauvois’n according to the result was expected, but at the same time the election showed the deep polarization of French society.

“The result isn’t very surprising because Macron was a favorite, but of course the election was uncomfortably tight because Marine Le Pen received almost ten percentage points more votes than in 2017, ”says Bauvois, who works at the University of Helsinki’s Research Center for Ethnic Relations and Nationalism.

When Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie Le Pen was in the second round Jacques Chiracin with in 2002, he received only 18 percent of the vote.

“This is quite a huge win for Le Pen.”

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Now eyes turn to the French parliamentary elections in June. Both Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon – the first on the far right, the second on the far left – have said that the parliamentary elections are, in effect, the third round of the presidential election.

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“Mélenchon said,‘ elect me as prime minister, thank you ’. It doesn’t happen, but it’s a way to get people to vote, ”Bauvois says.

Macron hopes to get a majority in his party in parliament, which is likely but not certain. France may get a coalition government.

“It’s very hard to see how Macron would handle it. A joint government with Mélenchon would revolutionize the situation, and Macron is trying to avoid it. ”

Both Le Pen and Mélenchon are trying to establish themselves as Macron’s opposition, Bauvois says.

And Éric ZemmourAn even more far-right presidential candidate than Le Pen, is likely to want to ally with Le Pen in the parliamentary election.

“These [presidentin]the election was not the end of the story. Only the events of the near future will set the political landscape in a new faith. ”

“This is quite a huge win for Le Pen.”

The far left and far-right candidates received about 58 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election. Traditional center-right and center-left parties are in big trouble.

“The Socialist Party is practically dead. The left is divided. And the center-right needs to reshape itself. It may break down into moderate and right-wing wings. ”

And if the left and the Greens ally behind Mélenchon and get enough seats in parliament while Le Pen’s party also thrives, it means problems for Macron, Bauvois says.

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“In the first round, Mélenchon and Le Pen got almost the same number of votes. It shows how polarized French society is. At the same time, Macron and Le Pen’s views on France as a nation are very, very far apart. There are two different polarizations going on. ”

French the political field seems to be moving towards the extremes.

“The speeches of the moderate right have also become much more extreme. Their candidates Valérie Pécresse talked about ‘demographic change’ [eli äärioikeistolaisesta salaliittoteoriasta], and that would not have happened ten years ago. The far right has become much more mainstream and has become a more acceptable voting option. ”

When Jean-Marie Le Pen was nominated with Chirac 20 years ago, Chirac didn’t even want to take part in the election debate with her, Bauvois says. Now Macron and others are forced to engage in debates with Marine Le Pen.

“Probably about 15 million people voted for Le Pen. It is a huge number of people and raises a lot of questions about the polarization of France. ”

The French political field seems to be moving towards the extremes.

What about the next presidential election in five years? A lot has to happen before them, but are there any bright center-right or center-left politicians in sight?

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“It’s very hard to see that. Macron has been selected twice and can no longer run. There is no substitute for him, no one to fill his boots, ”Bauvois

According to Bauvois, Macron’s party LREM was created for him.

“When he’s away, who will lead the party? There is currently no one to wash it. The party only exists through him, he is the only character in the party. How does Macron’s established creation survive? ”

Le Pen has also said he will no longer run for office. However, he may reverse his decision, Bauvois says.

“Mélenchon has also said he will no longer run for office because he is starting to be old.”

Mélenchon will be 75 years old in five years. He, too, leads the party he himself founded, and according to Bauvois, it is difficult to see who in the party could fill the boots of his leader because Mélenchon is such a prominent and powerful political figure.

There is a great deal of uncertainty on the horizon.

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