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Voting in the congress of the right-wing Republican party opened on Wednesday for its members to nominate the party’s presidential candidate. Among five applicants there will be a winner, whose name will be announced on Saturday afternoon, after a scrutiny that is predicted tight.
Who will be nominated as the candidate of the Republican party (LR, ‘Les Républicains’ in French) between Michel Barnier, Xavier Bertrand, Éric Ciotti, Philippe Juvin or Valérie Pécresse? The answer will be known on Saturday at 2:30 pm, at the close of a four-day congress that opened this Wednesday, December 1. While the 2016 vote was open to all right-wing supporters, this year’s vote is reserved for subscribed members.
Although it is impossible to anticipate the name of the winner, observers agree on one point: the results will most likely be very close, as the congress has attracted several new members. Republicans went from 80,000 to 140,000 affiliates in just two months. These new memberships muddy the waters and make any attempt at forecasting impossible.
Xavier Bertrand leaves as a favorite
The latest Harris Interactive poll for Challenges released Tuesday, the day of the last televised debate between the five contestants, shows a ranking unchanged since the start of the internal campaign.
The study puts Xavier Bertrand first in the right’s voting intention. But with a meager 14%, the president of the Haute-France region would be far from the second round, although obtaining more votes than Valérie Pécresse (11%) and Michel Barnier (10%). In other surveys, the figures are remarkably similar. Éric Ciotti gets, in the best of cases, 6%, compared to 3% for Philippe Juvin. But with around 50,000 new members in a matter of weeks, it’s hard to know who will win. “We are not safe from a final in which it is defined with less than 500 votes difference,” they slipped from the formation to the newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche.
At this point, it is possible to think that the four favorites – Michel Barnier, Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse and Éric Ciotti – can hope to reach the second round of voting. The first runs from Wednesday at 8 a.m. to Thursday at 2 p.m., and the second from Friday at 8 a.m. to Saturday at 2 p.m.
An assured scrutiny to avoid problems of the past
Still in the practical aspect, the party did everything possible to ensure the process, entrusting the electronic vote to the Neovote platform: “Each voter must provide a mobile number, an email address and a postal address in order to vote”, LR President Christian Jacob explained.
These are security measures designed to prevent possible disputes. No one in the party wants to relive the ruthless war between François Fillon and Jean-François Copé in 2012, when each claimed victory as president of the then-called Union for a Popular Movement (UMP).
A few days before the elections, public meetings, interviews and announcements of support multiplied. Each of the candidates put their last effort to try to convince the undecided and they played their cards: meeting for Xavier Bertrand, competition for Valérie Pécresse, seriousness for Michel Barnier, break for Éric Ciotti.
Right-wing candidates stepped up attacks on controversial Eric Zemmour
On Tuesday night, applicants were able to present their program for the last time during a televised debate, in a courteous setting. This fourth and last meeting was an opportunity to speak about his projects beyond immigration and insecurity, two themes that dominated the campaign.
They also took the opportunity to criticize far-right Éric Zemmour, who launched his campaign on Tuesday, a move that appeared to seek to downplay the right-wing congress. The far-right polemicist will have his first campaign act on Sunday, the day after the results of the Republican primaries are known.
Eager to strike back, candidates on the conservative right have stepped up attacks on Zemmour. “He does not have the stature to unite the French,” said Xavier Bertrand, while Michel Barnier felt that “we need seriousness, dignity, respect.” Valérie Pécresse, for her part, scoffed at the “instability” of the extreme right.
Primary candidates cannot comment until the first results are announced Thursday. That day they will have to withdraw again at 11:59 pm, until the winner’s name is revealed on Saturday.
For December 11, the Republicans have a big rally scheduled at the Porte de Versailles in Paris. A decisive week during which the future candidate will be able to fully enter the campaign with the backing of heavyweights who have not taken sides so far, such as Laurent Wauquiez or Bruno Retailleau.
Will these efforts be enough? The right remains behind at the polls for the presidential elections, behind Emmanuel Macron and the far right. However, LR hopes for a new dynamic to unfold once its candidate is nominated.
Article adapted from its original in French
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