Foreign Policy 2022: The Next Crisis Year

Zu At the beginning of last year, the message was sent that the new decade would be dangerous, mainly because the rivalry between America and China would be relentless. Now the time horizon of this message is compressed: life will already be dangerous in the new year; and again, according to the augurs, America and China play a decisive role. But not just them. In any case, the outlook for 2022 is sparing with optimism and confidence. On the other hand, the crisis panorama that the world offers and that is made up of many parts, security and geopolitical, epidemiological, economic and many more, is all the more impressive.

Europe looks with concern at the military threats that Russia has created on the border with Ukraine, although without knowing whether Moscow is prepared to escalate its campaign of intimidation to open military aggression. It is clear that Vladimir Putin wants to change the European security order in his favor: no more NATO expansion and no accession of a former republic of the Soviet Union to the alliance. Basically, Putin wants the resovietization of Russia and hegemony in and over Eastern Europe. The progressive internal repression is complementary to the aggressive appearance on the outside.

Predictable, reliable and willing to act?

China is also pursuing a two-pronged approach: internally, the last remnants of oppositional thought are eliminated, the rule of the communist party consolidated, the leadership cult around state and party leader Xi Jinping cemented – and externally, nationalistically fueled and legitimized, the aggressive line is continued. The question that arises in China, as in the case of Russia with regard to Ukraine, is: will the threats against Taiwan be followed by acts of war? Against this is the fact that the communists will hold their 20th party congress at the end of the year, at which Xi Jinping is to be confirmed. An invasion of Taiwan with all its unpredictability would be an uncertain factor that is difficult to calculate.

Uncertainty is the key word that comes to mind on many other topics. Will Iran push its uranium enrichment process to the point where it can arm itself with nuclear weapons? Will the USA remain predictable, reliable and willing to act in terms of foreign policy? How capable of action will Europe be, whose leading powers are either heading for a tough election campaign (France) or have to acquire stature and profile after the political change? Add to this the uncertainty associated with the corona pandemic and inflation.

Of course, it is possible that the course of events does not follow the gloomy outlook. In any case, many people have had enough of the many crises and conflicts, the unreasonable demands and pressures. The Germans, however, cannot be spared one thing: the realization that their security and prosperity depend more than ever on what is decided and done somewhere in the world; and that this world has (become) a very uncomfortable place. The consequences of this insight are obvious. They are the exact opposite of what was played in the election campaign. Foreign policy did not appear there.