If, as the Government said, the main objective of the assumption of a part of the regional debt by the State is Facilitate the access of autonomous communities to markets so that they can be financed on their own, the success of the initiative … You can start questioning.
A report on the operation approved by the government published a few days ago by the Fitch qualification agency only glimpses a potential improvement of the rating in the cases of the Autonomous Communities of Cantabria and La Rioja, due to the reduction of amortization costs.
It does not predict it, however, in other cases. Fitch analysts understand that the assumption of 26% of the autonomous debt by the State is nothing more than the Confirmation of your perception That the State Administration is willing to assume loads of the Autonomous Communities, something that the agency already discounted in March last year, in a change of consideration of the debt of the Fla that became an improvement of perspectives for the debt of most of the autonomous communities, and also last November when the credit perspective of half a dozen autonomous communities: Basque Country, Castilla-La Mancha, Cantabria, Cantabria, Cantabria, Cantabria, Cantabria, Cantabria, Cantabria, Cantabria. Catalonia, Madrid and Region of Murcia, also in the heat of the upward revision of the perspective for Spain.
Fitch emphasizes that his consideration on the debt titles of the Autonomous Communities comes from their individual credit strength, but also of “the qualification of the sovereign as a measure of the skill and Central government capacity to support them; And our opinion on the probability of ad hoc support from the central government in case of necessity, through liquidity mechanisms to refinance the debt », which has been confirmed with this operation.
Fitch recognizes, however, that the proposal will relieve the consequences of the imbalances of regional financing and indirectly could favor an improvement in access to markets of financing, limited to judging by the movements in their ratings it foresees.
The start of an uncertain negotiation
The doubts about the practical purposes of the phenomenal financial operation raised by the Government, which specifies the assumption by the state of more than 83,000 million euros of debt of the autonomous communities that today already finances the State with its emissions, appear just at the time when the technicians of the Ministry of Finance The Round of Contacts will start with Andalusia With autonomous governments supposedly to determine which debt titles are likely to benefit from government removal.
The Government of the Junta de Andalucía has already advanced that it will not be an accomplice of what they see as a concession to independence and that they do not see it Not even as a solution to a problem That, they say, is of financing, not of indebtedness, in line with what is a common position by the CC.AA. of the PP.
Andalusia, to which experts have assigned the poster of being one of the communities most benefited by the condonation raised by the first vice president of the Government, Minister of Finance and Socialist candidate for the Andalusian Government, María Jesús Montero, has estimated a saving of 140 million euros per year in interest for the maneuver, when, they underline, the invoice of the infinance that they suffer from the current system estimates about 1.5 billion euros per year.
Estimates made to date by the Autonomous Communities suggest that the debt condonation proposed by the Government I would save them just over 1 billion euros a year in interesta savings that could be diluted as a sugar at the time when they had to go to the market to be financed on their own since except for the exception of the Community of Madrid, most of them would have to assume a cost of financing higher than the one offered by the FLA today.
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