O Influenza Newsletter, from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), indicates that the cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SRAG) may have stopped falling in seven capitals, and there is a growing trend in cases in Macapá, Manaus, Porto Alegre and Vitória. The data were released today (16) by the foundation, which recommends caution in the relaxation of restriction measures and warns that it is essential to maintain individual and collective care against the transmission of covid-19.
The disease is the cause of 98% of SARS cases submitted to tests in the country, and, therefore, the syndrome is one of the parameters used by researchers to monitor the evolution of the pandemic.
Evidence of stabilization of SARS cases and deaths was found by researchers in the Plano Piloto in Brasília and surroundings, in Florianópolis, João Pessoa, Recife, Rio Branco, Rio de Janeiro and Teresina.
When the analysis focuses on the states, 20 of the 27 units of the federation tend to have a reduction in cases and deaths from SRAG, in a long-term analysis, which covers the last six weeks. Amazonas and Amapá show an upward trend, while Acre, Federal District, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and Rondônia tend to maintain the same level of cases and deaths from SARS.
In the short-term analysis, which considers the last three weeks, the scenario is one of greater stability: the number of federation units with a downward trend in the incidence of SRAG drops to five, while only Rondônia indicates growth. For the others, the trend is to maintain the level of cases and deaths from respiratory syndrome.
Given this scenario, Fiocruz recommends caution when making the distance more flexible, so that the downward trend in cases can be maintained long enough for the number of victims and hospitalizations to be significantly low. For states showing signs of growth recovery and stabilization, the recommendation is to reassess the adopted flexibilities.
Of the 27 capitals, ten were classified as having “extremely high” community transmission of the disease: Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Campo Grande, Curitiba, Goiânia, Macapá, Maceió, Porto Alegre, São Paulo and Teresina.
The largest group, comprising 12 capitals, has a very high level of transmission: Aracaju, Florianópolis, Fortaleza, João Pessoa, Manaus, Natal, Porto Velho, Recife, Rio Branco, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador and São Luís.
Belém, Boa Vista, Cuiabá, Palmas and Vitória were classified one step below, in the high level.
The bulletin warns that this situation “will keep the number of hospitalizations and deaths at high levels, with a tendency to worsen in the coming weeks if there is no new mobilization by the local authorities and population.”
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