The Covid-19 Observatory bulletin issued by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) this Friday, 12, draws attention to the recent picture of the pandemic in Europe and Central Asia, where increases in cases and deaths are recorded, even in localities in that the majority of the population is already vaccinated.
Given this scenario, the bulletin launches the debate on the need to maintain measures of physical distance and individual protection in Brazil and highlights the slowdown in the pace of first dose vaccination against covid-19 in the country. The new edition also highlights the alert from the director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO) for Europe and Asia, issued in early November, about the increase in the number of cases and deaths by covid-19 in these continents.
According to the WHO, countries in Europe and Central Asia are living the risk of a resurgence of covid-19. In the last week of October, Europe and Central Asia accounted for 59% of all cases and 48% of registered deaths worldwide.
With nearly 1.8 million new cases and 24,000 reported deaths, Europe and Central Asia had increases of 6% and 12%, respectively, over the previous week’s data. According to WHO, if this trend is maintained, these regions could register an additional half a million deaths per covid-19 by February 1, 2022, and 43 countries will again face the risk of a collapse in the response capacities of their health systems. Severe cases of the disease have been concentrated among unvaccinated groups, especially in countries with low vaccination coverage.
According to researchers from the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory responsible for the bulletin, although recent data in Brazil indicate the maintenance of the general downward trend in indicators monitored since the beginning of covid-19, it is important to highlight that the pandemic is not over and that the risk recrudescence remains with the proximity of the holiday and party season, with greater circulation and concentration of people in different environments.
Vaccination coverage and prevention measures
For scientists, success in mitigating the pandemic requires increasing vaccine coverage, but this does not exclude other strategies. They question the abandonment of measures to combat covid-19 recently registered in Brazil, especially the release of the use of masks and the relaxation of the recommendation of physical distancing. “This is due not only to the low participation of the population, but, especially, to the lack of encouragement from the government administration for its adoption”, they highlight.
According to the researchers, it is essential to reach a level of 80% full vaccination coverage of the total population – which today is 55%, still far from the level considered ideal. “This lack of physical distance includes different forms of agglomeration, from public transport to commerce and leisure activities, in which there is a prolonged exposure of people in confined spaces”, say the researchers.
Last week it was widely publicized that Brazil has reached 70% vaccination coverage in the adult population. However, according to the analysis, this is not the most suitable indicator for the assessment. The population of teenagers is one of the groups with the greatest intensity of circulation on the streets. “Therefore, it is wrong to think that, only with the adult population properly vaccinated, it is possible to unrestrictedly resume habits that result in the agglomeration of people.”
The researchers reinforce that, although the advance of vaccine coverage in the country has brought undeniable benefits for the mitigation of the pandemic, it cannot be treated as the only measure necessary to interrupt the virus transmission. “Relaxing physical distance must be done responsibly and safely. The recommendation is that, while we move towards an ideal level of vaccination coverage, measures of physical distance, use of masks and hand hygiene are maintained. And that activities that imply the greatest concentration and agglomeration of people are only carried out with proof of vaccination”.
Another issue addressed in the Bulletin is the vaccination of the first dose in Brazil, which has been slowing down since September and which, as of October, has been growing steadily and close to zero, varying, within a 25-day interval, between 71.03 and 73, 27% (growth of 0.08% per day).
Scientists inform that this is the moment when the stagnation of the growth curve for the first dose translates into population saturation for vaccination – as is happening in other countries, where it has caused an increase in cases, weeks after the diagnosis of this saturation.
“We have the possibility of reaching a coverage of 86% of the population, only considering adolescents and adults, and we cannot consider a stagnation around 73% satisfactory”, say the researchers. To speed up immunization with the first dose, they recommend the adoption of new strategies, in addition to the requirement for a vaccine certificate, capable of reaching people in more remote locations in the country, as well as those who are still resistant to the application of vaccines.
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