Neither the Korean War nor the Cold War, conflicts of great international importance, were sufficient reasons to mobilize Finland and Sweden, countries that had maintained neutrality for more than eight decades, to be so close to joining NATO (Organization of the North Atlantic Treaty).
(Read more: Finland hopes for speedy NATO membership, and Russia threatens retaliation)
However, after the so-called Russian special military operation on Ukraine, launched on February 24, the entry of both Nordic countries into the organization seems imminent, since this week they took safe steps to ratify this fact, which was criticized by the Kremlin. and his allies, but welcomed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Western European countries as well as the US.
NATO, the international military alliance of which 30 states are currently part, seeks that its member countries have a collective defense in case of being attacked by an outsider. And at the request of the Nordic countries, she said she was willing to speed up their accession, given the context.
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On Thursday, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and his Prime Minister announced their interest in becoming a member state of the Alliance. As expected, the news did not sit well with Russia. Especially since after the Finnish declarations, the way for Sweden to opt for the same decision seems to be a matter of time. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said the action would be a threat and that “a further expansion of NATO does not make the continent more stable or more secure.”
NATO, the international military alliance of which 30 states are currently part, seeks that its member countries have a collective defense in case of being attacked by an outsider.
Just yesterday, the Finnish president informed his counterpart Vladimir Putin of his country’s imminent candidacy for NATO, a step that the Russian leader described as a “mistake”.
(See also: Sweden concludes possible NATO membership would ‘improve its security’)
Along the same lines, in an announcement that tried to be more intimidating, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that its country “will be forced to adopt both military-technical and other response measures to counteract the threats that have arisen for its National security”. Among these measures is the power cut of the Russian operator InterRAO, through its subsidiary RAO Nordic, which came into force yesterday.
Invasion of Finland?
Experts maintain, however, that Russia’s offensive will not end there. Carmen Claudín, senior associate researcher at Cidob (Barcelona Center for International Affairs), told EL TIEMPO that nothing can be ruled out, not even a hypothetical invasion of Finland, a country with which it shares nearly 1,400 km of border.
“I don’t see it possible, at least in the short or medium term. But considering who is sitting in the Kremlin and who is making the decisions, now nothing is ruled out,” the expert analyzed.
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Claudín specifies that neither the Alliance nor any other country in Europe represents a threat to Russia. On the contrary, “it is a construct that they need to be able to justify their actions through an enemy. There are no military dangers for Russia,” he maintained.
This is a construct that they need to be able to justify their actions through an enemy. There are no military dangers for Russia.
In a move expected by experts and analysts, on Friday, the Swedish Parliament took a further step in its interest in joining NATO, through a report concluding that entry to the body would reduce the chances of an attack Russian. Even, according to the document, joining the treaty would serve as a deterrent.
“Sweden would lack the security guarantees provided by NATO membership, which could potentially be associated with a lower risk of unilateral Russian action against Swedish territory,” the document says.
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Given the advances of both countries in favor of the Alliance, the White House reported that President Joe Biden had a call with the Finnish president and with the Swedish Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, in which they discussed joining NATO.
We share our deep concern about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I reviewed Finland’s next steps towards NATO membership,” said Niinistö.
And while Sweden is expected to make a similar decision in the coming days, the move was also rejected by Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been part of the Alliance since 1952.
Nicolás de Pedro, senior researcher at the Institute for Statecraft in London, explains that “countries can express their opposition, since NATO works by consensus and everyone must ratify an accession.” But he adds: “It is certain that this incorporation is going to take place, there is no doubt. Turkey only wants to make a counterpart, but a blockade of the organization is not anticipated”.
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It is certain that this incorporation will take place, there is no doubt. Turkey only wants to make a counterpart, but a blockade of the organization is not anticipated.
Faced with the imminent entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, the world is questioning whether this apparent ‘triumph’ for the West would change the course of the war, which is just 80 days old today.
For Claudín, there would be no significant change on the ground, since he insists that NATO does not represent a direct threat to Russia. On the contrary, the measures that Helsinki and Stockholm are taking would be merely defensive.
“The situation will not change substantially. What NATO is doing is reinforcing its defensive capacity, and not its offensive capacity. At this time, since there is no direct confrontation, the Kremlin’s policy is not going to change much, ”says the researcher.
For his part, De Pedro states that Russia’s most likely step in the coming weeks, beyond energy and oil sanctions in Europe, will be to use its networks of influence that it has been building for decades, even since the Soviet era. “In addition to the extreme left, which stems from communist parties, Russia has also been forging ties over the last 15 years with the xenophobic extreme right across Europe, in which the Russian intelligence services have built a well-established network. greased,” he said.
(Also: Is a Russian invasion of Finland likely due to NATO membership?)
He suggests that this unofficial influence that Russia maintains with countries on the continent will be used to politically agitate the internal debate between countries, especially with threats such as the possibility of a third world war leveraged by the nuclear threat.
European response
What analysts do agree on is that the Kremlin did not expect such a firm and agile European response, since, historically, the bloc has not acted in that way to defend eastern countries, which still have a large Russian influence. In fact, Ukraine had already been the victim of a Russian invasion in 2014, which led to the illegal annexation of the Crimea region. However, despite the general rejection of the action, Europe did not work directly to defend Ukrainian sovereignty.
“In 2014, the European response was practically non-existent, in part because the continent did not understand what was happening,” said De Pedro. So what changed this time? Contrary to what happened eight years ago, the European bloc “suddenly woke up” to the possibility of large-scale wars, which could mean that Russia decides to invade another neighboring country.
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The widespread fear that the conflict could spread to Western states led Finland and Sweden to make the leap to NATO, which was in a tailspin and is now revitalized thanks to the political, diplomatic and strategic union against Russia.
“They are powerful and economically developed countries. The defense policy in Sweden is not the highest priority, but Finland, due to its history, is militarily prepared, with a significant capacity to intervene if necessary”, summarizes Claudín, confirming that, for this to become a reality, all that is needed is the presentation of a formal request to the Alliance, which could happen in a matter of days.
DIEGO STACEY SALAZAR
International Writing – THE TIME
On Twitter: @diego_stacey
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