09/30/2024 – 11:54
The Brazilian Economy Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) remained stable in September compared to August, at 107.8 points, after three consecutive drops, remaining below 110 points, Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) reported this Monday -Friday, 30. The level is considered moderate uncertainty, according to FGV. In the quarterly moving averages metric, the indicator fell 1.0 points, to 108.6 points.
“After three months of decline, the Economic Uncertainty Indicator showed stability in September. The analysis of daily data revealed a drop in the indicator until the middle of the month, possibly driven by the positive results of economic activity”, said Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at the Brazilian Institute of Economics at FGV (Ibre/FGV), in a note.
According to Gouveia, in the second fortnight, however, the index rose again, pressured by discussions about monetary policy in the coming months and the worsening of the conflict in the Middle East.
“The debates surrounding the trajectory of interest rates and inflation, which had already been affecting the Expectations component, continued to fuel noises of uncertainty in recent days, neutralizing the drop registered in the first half of the month by the IIE-Br”, informed the economist.
The IIE-Br is made up of two components: the IIE-Br Mídia, which maps the frequency of news mentioning uncertainty in the main newspapers; and the IIE-Br Expectação, which is constructed from the dispersions of forecasts for the exchange rate and the IPCA.
The Media component of the IIE-Br fell 0.1 point in September, to 106.0 points, the lowest level since March this year (105.6 pts.), contributing negatively with 0.1 point to the drop in the aggregate index . The Expectations component rose for the fifth time in a row, now at a slower pace, by 0.1 point. The indicator registered, in September, 111.5 points, the highest level since June of last year (116.8 points); its increase contributed positively with 0.1 point to the IIE-Br result for the month.
The Brazilian Economy Uncertainty Indicator is collected between the 26th of the previous month and the 25th of the reference month.
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