The Brazilian Economy Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) dropped 7.0 points from November to December, to 122.3 points, in the third consecutive fall, now in greater magnitude, informed the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) on this fourth -market. The indicator is 7.2 points above the level of February 2020 (115.1 points), the last month before the arrival of the covid-19 pandemic in the country, but still at an unsatisfactory level, according to the institution.
“The third consecutive fall of the IIE-Br was driven by its two components, Media and Expectation, which since July this year had not registered a simultaneous fall”, said the FGV in a statement.
According to the institution, the result reflects the continued improvement of the covid-19 indicators in Brazil, considering the moderate spread of the Ômicron variant in the country so far, and the lesser dispersion, compared to the previous month, of specialist forecasts for the scenarios of macroeconomic variables in 2022.
“The IIE-Br ends 2021 above 120 points, a level that is still unsatisfactory for the indicator. The next short-term results will depend on the evolution, mainly, of the new variant of the coronavirus in Brazil”, says Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at FGV Ibre.
The two components of the Uncertainty Indicator moved in the same direction in December. The Media component, based on the frequency of news mentioning uncertainty in print and online media, and built from the individual standards of each newspaper, dropped 5.0 points to 117.6 points, the lowest level since May 2021 ( 117.0 points) and negatively contributes 4.4 points to the aggregate index.
The Expectations component, which measures the dispersion in forecasts by specialists for macroeconomic variables, dropped 12.2 points to 131.8 points, interrupting the sequence of highs started in August this year. This component contributed negatively by 2.6 points to the evolution of the IIE-Br margin, informed the FGV.
The collection of the Economy Uncertainty Indicator is carried out on the 26th of the month prior to the reference and on the 25th of the reference month.
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