With the resumption of corporate profitability and the rise in raw material prices, the collection of taxes and federal contributions closed the year at R$ 1.878 trillion, the best result in the historical series, which started in 1995 (the previous record was from 2014 , of R$ 1.873 trillion – data adjusted for inflation). The value represents real growth – already discounting inflation – of 17% compared to R$ 1.479 trillion in 2020, the year marked by the beginning of the pandemic.
In the series corrected for inflation, the result for 2021 reaches R$ 1.971 trillion, but the expectation of economists consulted by Estadão is that the behavior should not be repeated this year, due to the weaker pace of activity. The tax authorities, however, believe that the previous data for January point to a growing recovery.
“We had a significant increase in taxes on corporate profits and income and also in the income tax of individuals”, says the special secretary of the Federal Revenue, Julio Cesar Vieira Gomes.
The head of the Tax and Customs Studies Center of the Federal Revenue, Claudemir Malaquias, detailed that there was a significant increase in revenue from the metallurgy and mineral extraction sectors.
According to researcher Bernardo Motta from the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre) of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the growth in revenue in 2021 restores the real loss of 7% that occurred in 2020 compared to the previous year and exceeds 9%, in terms of reais, the collection of 2019, when there was no pandemic.
Motta says that the factors that led to this surprising growth were conjunctural: the performance of demand and prices of raw materials (commodities), the exchange rate, inflation (which ends up leading to more taxes collected) and the recovery of the economy itself.
In 2022 high revenue should not be repeated, say economists
The strong growth in federal tax collection in 2021 was a result driven by atypical factors, and which should not be repeated this year, according to economists specializing in public finance consulted by the Estadão/Broadcast.
This confirms the prospect of a bigger hole in public accounts, signaled by the government at R$ 79.3 billion for 2022, more than double the R$ 38.2 billion negative result in 2021, in the projections of the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) of the Senate.
Economist Tiago Sbardelotto, from XP Investimentos, estimates that the collection should lose steam in 2022, among other reasons, due to the projected reduction for inflation (half of that verified in 2021) and the expected reduction in the dynamism of economic activity (GDP projections for this year point to stability, while in 2021 the high should be above 4%).
“Our expectation is that prices will remain high for a while, which should keep the collection strong at the beginning of the year. As soon as they start to fall, we will have some return to normality”, said Sbardelotto. “Economic activity should grow very little this year, if it does, then it is something that also pulls the collection down”, he added.
Under normal conditions, observes the executive director of the IFI, Felipe Salto, the collection tends to grow with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As there was a recovery movement last year after the 2020 recession, this growth ended up being more than proportional for statistical reasons. And that boosted the collection.
Risk of new PEC
Sbardelotto cites the threat of the PEC of fuels being studied by the government on the eve of elections to reduce taxes levied on gasoline, diesel, gas and electricity. “It brings a very significant loss to the collection, around R$ 70 billion, and offers no gain to society in the reduction of prices. It’s a very high cost for a very small gain. And there is still the risk of it being extended for another two years, which would significantly affect the debt trend,” he concluded.
as showed the Estadãothe hole generated by the PEC may be greater if the impact on state revenues is added, reaching R$ 240 billion.
Even with the lower collection, the government must meet the leak limit for this year, evaluates the XP economist. The official forecast is that the deficit will be R$ 79.4 billion, below the target of R$ 170.5 billion.
For Pezco economist Helcio Takeda, the deceleration of inflation and the loss of breath of activity limit the space for an improvement in collection, although there is still room for some nominal increase. “From a real point of view (discounting inflation), with the higher base of 2021, it is likely that we will see months with negative variation,” he said.
For the economist, the growth of economic activity and high inflation also supported the December result (R$ 193.9 billion, also a record for the last month of the year). After the release of the data, Takeda revised his forecast of results for the government accounts last month, from a deficit of R$3.5 billion to a surplus of R$5.5 billion.
The information is from the newspaper. The State of São Paulo.
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