After testing a drop at the beginning of trading in the range of 111,000 points, the Ibovespa changed its signal, renewing highs above 112,000 points, testing the 113,000 points. However, it soon lost strength with a change of signal for the fall of most stocks in New York. Investors still remain fearful and with internal and external doubts, especially in relation to global inflation. In addition, the expiration of options on Ibovespa limits the valuation.
According to the chief economist of ModalMais, Álvaro Bandeira, it would be important for the Ibovespa to advance towards 115 thousand points. “After defending the 112,000 points on Monday (down 0.58%, to 112,180.48 points), it would be important for the Ibovespa to seek the 115,000 points to gain traction”, he says in a morning analysis to clients, in which it also recalls the 109,500 points at the end of November 2020.
However, this path does not seem to be easy since uncertainties about inflation in the world are hanging in the air, amid rising prices, given the global energy crisis, at the same time that there are bottlenecks in the production chains, which have generated fears about to the global downturn.
In the morning, the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States rose 0.4% in September, compared to a forecast of 0.3%. In the year-on-year comparison, it increased by 5.4% (analysts’ forecast was 5.3%). The CPI core rose 0.2% in September compared to August, as expected.
“Overall, they came in line with expectations, but they are strong numbers, reinforcing the reading that the Fed will present the timetable in November for the removal of tapering”, says the chief economist at Veedha, Camila Abdelmalack.
Although heads of central banks worldwide continue to reaffirm that high inflation is currently transitory, Camila notes that the market and investors have doubts about this, given the inflationary risks caused by the global energy crisis. “The concern with inflation is not unique to Brazil. There is a global issue regarding energy cost. As much as we see a relief in the IGPs, because of agricultural prices, we know that this may not be a trend”, he ponders.
Amid expectations of normalization of interest rates in the United States, the director of Economic Policy of the Central Bank (BC), Fabio Kanczuk, said today that if the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) changes its monetary policy, the BC you will have to act “in agreement”. He also pointed out that with fiscal risk in Brazil, it is not possible to avoid a tighter monetary policy.
The words indicate that the Central Bank will maintain the discipline of raising interest rates, with an eye on the target in 2022, but the fiscal issue is not the responsibility of the monetary authority, describes Mehanna Mehanna, founding partner of Phi Investimentos. Amidst this inflationary pressure, interest rates will continue to rise, with a consensus of a one-percentage-point increase in the following Copom, he cites. However, the director suggests that the pace could slow down or be accelerated, he adds.
Despite inflationary pressures, stocks linked to consumption advance on the stock exchange. According to Mehanna, even though the inflation scenario is worrying, the September IPCA (1.16%), released on Friday and lower than expected (median of 1.25%) gives hope of inflation control ahead. He remembers that these roles suffered a lot and that they are trying to recover.
“The Ibovespa goes up despite the fact that we have nothing encouraging on the news and with a weak agenda. The market may be tired of the beating. There comes a time when you don’t need great news to go up. This lateralization can be interpreted in this way,” says Mehanna.
As for the crop of balance sheets in the US, JPMorgan kicked off the season by posting a 24% increase in its net profit year-on-year in the third quarter, beating expectations. In BlackRock’s case, profit was $1.681 billion for the period (or $10.89 per share), 23 percent higher than the $1.364 billion gain in the third quarter of 2020.
In general, inflation and balance sheet data reinforce that the US economy is expanding, supporting the idea that the Fed will soon start withdrawing stimulus, scheduled for November. The question is whether the Fed will be more or less aggressive during this process. In the afternoon, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (Fomc) will be released, for which the MCM hopes to reinforce the scenario for the beginning of tapering (withdrawal of stimulus) this year.
Despite the US$ 66.76 billion trade surplus in China in September, above analysts’ expectations, stocks linked to the metallic commodities sector fell on the Stock Exchange. Yesterday (-3.55%) and today (-4.66%) iron ore at the Chinese port of Qingdao closed down, amid new restrictive measures in China. The country ordered a reduction in steel production in some parts between 15 November and 15 March. Oil retreats and also limits the appreciation of the Ibovespa (up 0.13%, to 112,324.87 points, after a daily high of 113,097.55 points).
According to Rachel de Sá, Rico’s head of economy, this restriction weighs on iron ore prices, which are the main raw material for steel – impacting companies that produce the commodity around the world, such as Brazil’s Vale. The company’s shares yielded 2.52%.
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