Monte Carlo, Sunday evening. Not far from the Ferrari hospitality area, where the celebrations for Charles Leclerc’s victory lasted for a long time, a phrase was thrown out in a small group of experts that only a month ago would have been greeted with loud laughter: “But not is the world championship really reopening?”. It’s time to delve deeper, without being too influenced by the (strong) emotions that the Monegasque weekend provided.
The indisputable fact is that in the last three races Red Bull has achieved only one success, the ‘only’ is a must considering that in the previous six Grands Prix it had only missed the Australian victory. The other piece of data that goes in favor of those who believe that we can witness a world comparison is that between Miami and Monaco in the general classification Leclerc gained 62 points (against Verstappen’s 59) and Ferrari 101 (against 81 for Red Bull). Are these numbers enough to believe that a global comparison could really open up?
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo by: Erik Junius
The challenge to Verstappen is a ‘mission impossible’
The possibilities of putting pressure on Red Bull are different from those of undermining Verstappen. Monaco is certainly not an ordinary track, and cannot be taken as indicative when talking about values on the pitch. Imagining Max starting to make rapid-fire mistakes is an exercise that requires a lot of imagination, it’s true that in the space of ten days the world champion was the author of several mistakes (the biggest in qualifying in Monte Carlo) but in Imola it was However, he managed to climb to the top step of the podium despite the problems suffered by his car. The value he adds to the team’s economy is bulletproof.
Thinking about reopening the drivers’ championship today means predicting a technical overtaking by Ferrari (or McLaren) on each of the next sixteen tracks on the calendar. An unlikely hypothesis. Putting aside the suggestions triggered by the Monaco Grand Prix, Verstappen scored fewer points than Leclerc only on the Melbourne weekend, where he was forced to retire during the first lap. In Monte Carlo, for the first time this season, he crossed the finish line behind Charles, and so far he remains more the exception than the rule. Red Bull has highlighted some major problems on the roads of the Principality, but it is still an unusual scenario, which Formula 1 will only encounter again in September in the trip to Singapore.
“In the last races we didn’t have a car to win – clarified Leclerc after the success in the home GP – we managed it in Monaco where I knew I would have an opportunity. We succeeded and we were good at optimizing everything. But we have to remember that Monaco is a very specific track and it doesn’t mean that it will be like this until the end of the year. Then, it is clear to everyone that, compared to the first races of the season, there has been significant growth, but for now I’m not thinking about the championship, it’s too early, we still have to check the updates we introduced in Imola and understand where they will take us.” Leclerc brings everyone back down to earth. To hope for something great you need weekends like Monaco, outside of Monaco.
Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
The Perez variable and the challenge in the Constructors’ Championship
Another story is the world race in the team rankings. A fact that has clearly emerged in recent races is that when Red Bull shows problems, the gap between Verstappen’s performance and that of Perez widens a lot.
Ferrari and Red Bull will arrive in Canada separated by twenty-four points, a very small margin in a Constructors’ classification, especially considering that after the first two races of the season it was twenty-eight points. The fluctuating performance of Perez, currently fifth in the drivers’ standings behind both Ferrari drivers, had a major impact on reducing the gap between the two teams.
It is no coincidence that Red Bull have thought about an imminent renewal of the Mexican’s contract for the 2025 season, a signal to try to put him in the best possible conditions so that he can give his best. It is a sign that something has changed compared to twelve months ago, when Verstappen alone was enough to keep opposing teams at bay.
Today Red Bull knows that the two thirds of the season starting from Montreal will be very intense, technical updates and perfect work on the simulator will be needed to prepare for the race weekends. And Sergio Perez’s points will also be needed to counteract the more homogeneous performance that the tandem of Ferrari and McLaren drivers are guaranteeing. Here the battle seems more open and with more variables that could determine the final outcome.
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