F1 | Verstappen and McLaren are the favourites in the second half of the season. Here’s why.

The fourteen Grands Prix held from March to July have proposed two different scripts. The verdicts of the first six races of the season were in line with the 2023 season, with a Red Bull in great shape capable of obtaining (with Max Verstappen) four victories in the first five races, including three doubles completed by a good Sergio Perez. It seemed like the remake of a film already seen, a world championship destined to be branded by SuperMax and the umpteenth perfect creature of Adrian Newey, then suddenly everything changed.

With the first phase of technical updates completed, the season has taken a very different direction, clearly x-rayed by the numbers in the general classification. On the eve of the Imola weekend (the first European round), Red Bull led the constructors’ classification with a 52-point margin over Ferrari, 115 over McLaren and 175 over Mercedes. In the eight subsequent races, Red Bull itself lost 73 and 33 points respectively to McLaren and Mercedes, managing to increase its advantage (by 11 points) over Ferrari alone.

Constructors standings last 8 GPs

McLaren 242
Mercedes 202
Red Bull 169
Ferrari 158

The change of direction was so drastic that it put McLaren today as the big favorite to win the constructors’ title despite still having to make up a 42-point gap. The analysis of the points that McLaren left on the road due to various errors made by the team, the drivers and favored in some cases by circumstances that were not always favorable also significantly unbalanced the experts’ forecast. “Potentially they should have already been in the lead – commented an engineer from a rival team – and if we base ourselves on the technical potential of the single-seater, Lando should also have been fighting for the world championship”.

Before analyzing the drivers’ standings, there is another verdict that could be a sensational surprise, and that is the one regarding the third position, occupied today by Ferrari. If there is not a drastic change of direction, it is difficult for the Scuderia to think of being able to worry those ahead of it, but at the same time the trend of the last races says that it is also important to watch your back from a Mercedes that has become threatening. In the three hours following the checkered flag of the Belgian GP, ​​Ferrari saw its advantage over the ‘star’ reduced to 56 points, then returned to 79 after the disqualification of George Russell. The margin on paper is reassuring, but if you read the standings of the last six events it emerges that Mercedes has recovered 77 points on the Scuderia.

Constructors standings last 6 GPs

McLaren 182
Mercedes 170
Red Bull 132
Ferrari 93

Let’s move on to the drivers’ championship. In this case, the situation of leader Verstappen appears much more solid than that of Red Bull in the constructors’ standings. Max is the only variable that has not undergone shocks since the beginning of the season, but he is an exception. Reading today’s updated drivers’ standings after the Miami Grand Prix seems to have in hand a document of another season. Behind Verstappen, at 136 points, follow Perez (103), Leclerc (98), Norris and Sainz (83) and Piastri, with only 41 points. Hamilton is far away, with 27 points. The European season has drastically changed the values ​​on the field, even if Verstappen has confirmed himself once again as the driver with the best partial from the Italian stage to Spa.

Drivers’ standings last 8 GPs

Verstappen 141
Plates 126
Hamilton 123
Norris 116
Leclerc 79
Sainz 79
Russell 79
Perez 28

What leaves the world champion at ease is above all the large margin accumulated in the first third of the season. A crucial nest egg, since in the last four Grands Prix he has given up 22 points to both Piastri and Hamilton, failing to win in any race and deserting the podium in both Hungary and Belgium. An external factor that was crucial for his situation in the standings played in Max’s favor, namely the lack of concreteness of Norris, the great disappointment of the summer season.

The partial standings of the last four Grands Prix are very indicative of Norris’s form: both Piastri and Hamilton have scored 80 points, Verstappen 58 and Lando only 49. If Norris had expressed himself at the level of his teammate today he would be 47 points behind Verstappen, a high margin in any case, but not enough to guarantee Max a good night’s sleep. From here it also emerges what McLaren’s real objective will be in the last ten races, that is, to win the constructors’ title. For the drivers’ standings, the only variable that could really reopen the game would be a double stop for Verstappen, a scenario that is not impossible but which appears decidedly unlikely.

Drivers’ standings last 4 GPs

Plates 80
Hamilton 80
Verstappen 58
Norris 49
Sainz 46
Russell 35
Leclerc 29
Perez 20