In sharp contrast to what has been seen in Mexico, in Brazil, Mercedes showed significant superiority over Red Bull, the evidence of which ranges from almost half a second advantage in qualifying to the best pace expressed in the race. The world championship challenge moves to Qatar, track where Mercedes again has the potential to aim for success, not only on the basis of the victory won at Interlagos. The Losail International Circuit is in fact full of high-speed bends and is connected by a straight of over a kilometer, while the low-mileage corners are absent in which the W12 enters into more crisis, compromising the overall balance. On the other hand, in addition to just the design of the Qatari track, there are several variables and boundary conditions that Red Bull will be able to exploit to subvert the verdict in Sao Paulo and aim for that victory that would bring the drivers title closer.
The route, located near the capital Doha, measures 5380 meters and is connected by 16 curves, 10 of which on the right and 6 on the left, thus putting more stress on the tires on the left side. The racetrack does not have some typical sections of the most successful tracks, such as slopes or gravel on the track, but it is mainly composed of high-speed curves which, in this particular aspect, share it with tracks such as Silverstone and Mugello. The triple curve to the right stands out among all 12-13-14, with a continuous lateral acceleration of more than 5 g, in which many similarities can be recognized with the famous curve 8 in Istanbul or the long bend with four chord points in the final sector of Austin.
For the first time this season after Monte Carlo, there will be only one activation zone of the DRS, corresponding to almost the entire length of the arrival straight of over one kilometer, suggesting that overtaking may be relatively easy, as well as possible comebacks in the event of an engine replacement. However, the presence of high mileage curves will entail the need to have the maximum aerodynamic load of the car even at high speeds, thus forcing to postpone the induction of the stall of the diffuser in a straight line, used to reduce drag. Mercedes, Ferrari and Alpine are among the teams that exploit the phenomenon more effectively than, for example, Red Bull, McLaren and Aston Martin, but the resulting advantage for them will be less than what they enjoyed in Brazil.
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Again at low altitude, but at night
After two Grands Prix held at high altitude, we return to racing at sea level and therefore the issue of the rarefaction of the air linked to altitude disappears. With it the slight performance advantage for the Honda motorized teams is missing, resulting from the improved efficiency of the turbocharger at higher engine speeds, necessary to further compress the air entering the engine to compensate for its rarefaction. However, a different variable will take over instead of the altitude, since we return to racing at night, with qualifying and the race that will both be held after sunset under artificial lights. Like what happens in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi, the theme of thermal excursion from day to night emerges, since FP2 will be the only free practice sessions that will be held after sunset in the same qualifying and race conditions. FP1 and FP3 will still be extremely important, but FP2 will be the only session truly representative of the race conditions, an even more delicate aspect considering how the teams have never raced in Doha and are eager to collect as much data as possible.
The absence of prior information constitutes another central theme of the eve and will reward the teams that have prepared the event more accurately and with simulations more representative of the actual track conditions. The position of the track in the middle of the desert also suggests a strong evolution of the track during the weekend, considering the probable presence of sand carried by the wind and the scarce use of the plant in the recent period, suggesting an asphalt belt green and therefore poorly rubberized, whose grip will increase over the weekend. Overall, between the dispute of just one free practice session at night, the absence of previous information and the expected evolution of the track, a dynamic weekend is expected, with probable changes in the balance of power between teams.
A smooth track
The smooth and fast nature of the track is highlighted by the brake data. In fact, Brembo technicians classified the track with a severity of 2 out of 5 for the braking system. The evaluation derives from the use of the brakes in just 7 of the 16 curves of the track, with 5 braking less than in the MotoGP bikes, for use equal to 11% of the total time. In detail, the absence of braking with decelerations greater than 5 g is relevant, underlining once again how the entry and cornering speeds are decidedly high. In fact, the most demanding braking is not located at the end of the finish straight, but precedes turn 6, where the cars decelerate from around 250 km / h up to around 100 km / h at the corner entry, with a peak deceleration of 4.2 g.
Taking note of the preponderance of high-speed curves that subject the tires to high lateral stresses, in addition to the high vertical aerodynamic load, Pirelli has opted for the hardest compounds in its range: C1, C2, and C3. The decision was also dictated by a conservative approach, given the debut of Formula 1 on the Qatari track. The information currently available predicts asphalt with a medium level of grip and medium to high wear. Furthermore, the minimum static inflation pressures recommended are 22.0 psi at the front And 19.5 psi at the rear.
The boundary conditions
The return to normal altitudes favors Mercedes more, since the drop in performance of the power unit due to the rarefaction of the air has suffered more than Honda. The presence of a long straight and the abundance of high-mileage curves further play to the advantage of the W12, which in addition to being particularly fast in lengthening has shown greater effectiveness in high-speed bends rather than in hairpin bends. On the other hand, it is unlikely that the Brackley team can count on the same engine advantage given by the fresh engine mounted at Interlagos, which will be slightly downsized after the power unit was used in a decidedly pushed way during the Brazilian weekend. Also due to the high-speed cornering, the minor contribution made by the speaker stall will reduce the advantage built by the W12 in extension.
There are also several variables which, although they do not necessarily play in Red Bull’s favor, will have to be interpreted in the best possible way and will constitute the battleground on which the Anglo-Austrian team will be able to find the opportunities to respond to Mercedes’ performance in Brazil. As always, success in Formula 1 does not depend on single determining factors, such as the characteristics of the circuit most similar to the qualities of the Silver Arrows, but on interpretation and excellence in every single area. Success in Qatar cannot transcend the quest for optimal balanceand, always arduous and even more delicate work in Doha due to the absence of information from past events. In this regard, in Sao Paulo Mercedes showed off a good overall balance, to which however the study of the data and the experience accumulated in previous editions in which the Brackley team had not excelled had contributed, which led to a redefinition of the strategy of trim.
It will then be necessary to evaluate whether on a circuit full of high-speed corners, where the tires will therefore be highly stressful both laterally and vertically, the tires may exhibit phenomena of blistering due to internal overheating. The dispute of the event at night should help to contain the temperatures, but if this were not the case it would be an aspect that would meet Red Bull. The blistering would require limiting the level of aerodynamic load in order not to transfer excessive energy to the tires and accentuate overheating, a mistake made by Red Bull at Silverstone, so much so that he preferred to change the aerodynamic look in the parc fermé on Perez’s car after the Sprint Race. In the second half of the season, Mercedes has shown that it can increase the aerodynamic load of its set-ups thanks to the speed superiority on the straight, which limits the concerns about greater aerodynamic resistance. For this reason, if the aerodynamic downforce level were to be limited by the onset of blistering, Mercedes’ advantage in this area would be reduced. However, the question of whether Red Bull will decide to replace the engine on Max Verstappen’s car, with the Dutchman who in this case would have five penalty positions on the starting grid, hangs on the Qatari event.
In the fight for third constructors place, which goes hand in hand with that for fifth place in the drivers’ championship between Norris, Leclerc and Sainz, the Losail International Circuit appears to be the ideal circuit for McLarens, incredibly effective in fast corners and straight lines. . However, like the duel between Mercedes and Red Bull, the verdict of the center-group match in Qatar will depend on the interpretation of all the surrounding conditions. Ferrari also showed signs of evident improvements in lengthening and fast folds, which is why for the Cavallino, after the absence of the McLarens from the center of the group in the last few races due to penalties, accidents and retirements, the appointment in Qatar is an important proof of maturity about the progress made.
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