Although not particularly safe, the Jeddah circuit remains one of the most exciting on the calendar, both for the drivers and for the cars. Red Bull’s superiority was already evident after the opening round, but with two qualifying sessions now in file we have a better picture of what separates the SF-23 from the RB19. Meanwhile, the world champions celebrate a new pole position and, as far as demonstrated, a one-two in the race is possible despite Verstappen’s starting position.
Queen of efficiency
Talking about speed in a straight line in an absolute sense is hardly indicative, as it is all related to the load released and the consequent resistance. Decidedly more relevant is the relationship between the two parameters, i.e. aerodynamic efficiency. In Bahrain Ferrari had been the fastest car on the straight, a result marred by the more unloaded wing, while Red Bull in the most charged configuration had been the queen of the sector driven. In Jeddah the world champions went offloading themselves with the new aerodynamic package, going against the trend of the Cavallino which instead was finally able to increase the downforce of the SF-23. With no more doubts related to engine mappings and fuel loads, qualifying in Jeddah removed any doubts about which of the two is the more efficient single-seater. As well as in 2022, Red Bull continues to be impregnable on the straight, however printing record times also in the first sector. The heavier set-up was not enough for Ferrari to keep pace in the leading sector.
Verstappen’s exit distorted the prospect of a superiority of the RB19 which in qualifying could have easily exceeded half a second. Perez has identified turn 22 as the point where he feels the car is neutral in terms of balance. This data underlines even more the goodness of Red Bull, since it is the fast left-right chicane traveled at intermediate speeds between the last hairpin and the high-traffic corners of the first sector. It is an extremely balanced Red Bull, which reaches neutrality exactly at medium distances and with average curvature radii.
Not only can the Milton Keynes team count on an excellently born project, but it also demonstrates that they already know the car thoroughly. The direct rivals, on the other hand, still explore the single-seaters and seek answers to unresolved questions. However, concerns are starting to arise recurring reliability problems at the rear of the RB19. In Bahrain Verstappen complained about the micro-locks, while in Jeddah on Friday he criticized the excessively long downshifts. The team replaced the gearbox on both cars and Perez spoke of mechanical problems both on Friday and in his final run in qualifying. The most striking case, however, is the failure of the rear right axle shaft on Verstappen’s car, which will force him to start from fifteenth position. Impossible to say whether the various problems are connected or not, perhaps dependent on excessive vibrations or an extreme lightening work. However, Red Bull is eager to solve it, because reliability is currently the only variable that could slow down the RB19.
Ferrari below expectations
The Ferrari had shown almost pole position potential in Bahrain and the readings on the straight at Sakhir foreshadowed an even more competitive SF-23 in Jeddah, at least over the flying lap. There was awareness of the speed distorted by the different choice of wing, but the trip to Saudi Arabia has dispelled any doubts about how Ferrari is not the most efficient car and cannot count on speed on the forehand to hold on to Red Bull. However, the situation for the Scuderia has improved significantly compared to Friday. The cornering distances show how not only was the Rossa engine down during free practice, but also with a lot of petrol on board, working above all with a view to the race, not only with the penalized Leclerc. Ferrari lets glimpse signs of a change of approach in preparing for the weekend, favoring balance and low race rather than absolute grip and flying lap. Furthermore, in qualifying the SF-23 was not as incisive as its rivals on the first lap launched, so much so that Sainz needed two warm-up laps in both Q2 and Q3. Only the Grand Prix will reveal whether the team has launched a set-up which, in order to preserve the tires from wear, struggles to get them up to temperature.
Overall, the high level of downforce allowed Leclerc to record good mileage in the very fast corners of the first sector. However, the entry and exit balancing problems continue to compromise the time on the stopwatch, as also shown by the various corrections at the wheel of Sainz. Just the Spanish finally has repeatedly complained of problems derating, an event that signals a weakening of the hybrid part following overheating. It is possible that Ferrari wanted to experiment with new delivery strategies, or, much more likely, the long straights of Jeddah subjected the hybrid part to great stress.
Aston Martin still ahead
The AMR23 is no longer a surprise, capable of making an impact both on a rear-limited track like Bahrain and on the super-fast Jeddah. The team brought a new low-downforce package, including front, rear and beam wings, but it wasn’t enough to contain the large gap accumulated in the third sector. Aerodynamic efficiency remains Aston Martin’s limit and it will likely be the area on which development at Silverstone will focus.
Mercedes claws the second row with Russell, while Hamilton appears decidedly more in crisis. The small updates to the underfloor couldn’t work miracles and, despite the progress on the efficiency of the rear wing, in the straight they are still 8km/h behind Red Bull. Russel has also complained since Friday strong steering vibrations, even when braking, therefore not attributable only to the deformation of the tire shoulder. All this suggests a very stiff Mercedes on the suspension, in an attempt to stabilize the bottom and possibly lower it to generate more downforce.
Alpine shows signs of recovery, placing two cars in Q3. The A523s paid off especially in the third sector, although technical director Matt Harman had celebrated the attention paid to aerodynamic efficiency. The race will reveal whether the Enstone team has favored a more loaded setup to help tire management. Surprisingly, an extraordinary Oscar Piastri brings the McLaren in the fourth row, an unexpected result especially in Jeddah considering that the top management of the team had openly admitted the low aerodynamic efficiency of the MCL60. As with their rivals, the race will show whether the car maintains the same consistency over the long haul for the Woking outfit. Meanwhile, the new speaker seems to be paying off. Haas finally, he nearly enters Q3, showing great speed on the straight and a few too many difficulties in the first sector. Not the best premise from a race perspective.
Closing, on Saturday morning Pirelli has raised the inflation pressures by 1 psi, bringing the front in line with the 2022 requirements, with the rear end even going beyond last season’s values. The new tires should have allowed the pressures to be reduced and the front grip to be regained, a goal which however was not achieved in Saudi Arabia. The next races will tell if it was an isolated case or a persistent change, which the teams will have to take note of in order to adjust the settings accordingly.
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