The most important analysis facing the teams over the Suzuka weekend does not seem to be that of telemetry data. Weather forecasts are holding the spotlight, which at the moment indicate a dry qualifying tomorrow and a chance of rain (fifty per center) for Sunday. The potential difference in conditions between qualifying and the race will require a compromise solution, but someone could also go for an extreme setup in hopes of getting the prediction right.
At the end of a Friday completed with two wet sessions, the findings that emerged are to be taken with a grain of salt. Mercedes ended the day in first and second position (with George Russell and Lewis Hamilton respectively) with both drivers grinding a lot of kilometers.
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13
Photo by: Motorsport.com / Japan
In the second part of the FP2 session (i.e. when the best times were achieved) both Hamilton and Russell used a second set of intermediate tires, a crucial advantage to take the lead of the day’s standings.
In the wet, the two Mercedes suffer less from the problem of hopping, or the chronic enemy of the W13 project, and this increases the potential of the car. If they decide to make a bet, Hamilton and Russell will focus on a wet race, and even if today the setup differences between dry and rain conditions are not so marked, some parameters (such as downforce and ground clearance) they could be set ad hoc.
George Russell, Mercedes AMG
Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images
A gamble, but it is also true that in ordinary conditions the chances of seizing the longed-for first success of the season are very limited and, after the disappointment of Singapore, gambling could also be there.
Officially, however, Mercedes today worked to understand the problems encountered in the FP3 session in Singapore, a round that had seen Russell (ninth) and Hamilton (twelfth) complaining about little grip and difficult handling of the car.
Hidden cards, therefore, with Lewis who also said he expected a dry weekend. “We rode a lot today for other reasons – he commented – but I think it will be dry for the rest of the weekend. If that’s the case, I expect Ferrari and Red Bull to be very fast. However, the two sessions today were useful for trying things out on the setup, assessing tire wear and aerodynamic load values ”.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18
Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images
At Red Bull there is a lot of tranquility, the first two positions occupied by Mercedes do not worry. “We only used one set of intermediates – commented Christian Horner – Mercedes used more, so I think net of all our pace is reasonable”.
The Red Bull team principal underlined the concern of the moment, that is, the setup choices that are able to best match the variable track conditions.
“We are trying to find the correct compromise – confirmed Horner – because tomorrow it seems that it will be dry while on Sunday there is a risk of rain. We need to find a middle ground, which means having a reasonable amount of downforce for both conditions, and the same goes for stiffness ”.
A Japanese fan with a Max Verstappen puppet
Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images
At the moment, however, everything is focused on a dry qualifying, and this puts Max Verstappen in the role of big favorite to conquer the pole position.
As usual, the world champion cut short: “Tomorrow we will all start from scratch, the results obtained today have no value in view of qualifying”.
At Red Bull the hope is that of a weekend as linear as possible, and it is an expectation motivated by the awareness of superiority. Even in the event of a wet track Verstappen and Perez will be able to play their chances, but it is a variable that Red Bull would gladly do without. Everything is ready for Max’s title-encore party, and the less unforeseen there will be, the more in the pits they will be sure they can get the champagne out of the refrigerators.
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