In one way or another, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix is destined to become a turning point in the history of the 2021 World Championship. Should Hamilton manage to further shorten Verstappen, the two would arrive in Abu Dhabi separated in the standings by a distance sufficient ensure that the challenge for success at Yas Marina would have the world title at stake. Otherwise, the Dutchman of Red Bull could already mortgage the championship in Jeddah. However, although both sides agree that Mercedes is the favorite in Saudi Arabia, there is a high probability that the weekend may not meet the predicted script on the eve. In fact, Jeddah sees the combination of different factors often a source of unpredictability, such as the debut on a new track and the high-speed nature of the circuit which, combined with the essence of a city track, invite you to expect a weekend full of reversals in front of you.
The track measures 6174 meters, second on the calendar only at the 7004 meters of Spa. The preponderance of high-mileage curves and the presence of numerous extensions, on which the three activation zones of the DRS are located, contribute to making Jeddah the fastest city circuit in history and the second fastest of the entire calendar. The simulations foresee an average speed on the flying lap in qualifying around the 252 km / h, which although they are distant from the 264 km / h of Monza, are still higher than the 250 km / h of Spa and Silverstone. The Saudi track and the English track are united by the high average distance per lap and the abundance of rapid sequential changes of direction, while each retaining a unique and different identity.
Observing the layout of the track, the curves in rapid succession to be tackled around 200 km / h by choking on the gas could offer a stimulating driving challenge, but doubts arise regarding overtaking and safety. Regarding the first aspect, the folds in sequence with high mileage will make close chases particularly difficult due to the high aerodynamic sensitivity of modern single-seaters. It is not taken for granted that the three DRS zones may be sufficient to bridge the distance between the pursuer and the pursued, given that the low-medium downforce set-ups that are likely to be adopted will reduce the range of the wake effect and the effectiveness of the mobile wing, a similar problem with what was seen in Monza. However, first impressions on the security front are even more worrying, given the numerous curves of over 200 km / h surrounded by walls with no side escape routes. The risk is that a crashed car could remain in the trajectory, on a track full of blind curves precisely because of the walls, which also cancel any margin of error which would inevitably be followed by an impact. It is therefore not unrealistic to hypothesize a race strongly conditioned by the Safety Car, in which strategic flexibility and the timing of returning to the pits will be crucial.
Overall, the route is connected by 27 curves, a record value for the 2021 calendar. Among these stands out the initial chicane immediately after the starting grid which, together with the last corner, constitutes the only low-speed section of the track with distances around 100 km / h . Another distinctive feature is turn 13 where the track reverses its direction, a long bend to the left characterized by a lateral inclination of the roadway of 12 °. In detail, this is a higher banking than that present on the Indianapolis Speedway, but lower than the peaks of 18 ° of turns 3 and 14 of Zandvoort. Turn 13 in Jeddah is also the only real corner of the long-distance track, while the rest of the track sees a succession of sharp curves and rapid changes of direction, which require a precise and responsive front.
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Unanimous prediction
The Saudi racetrack presents itself as which a front limited track, on which in most scenarios the performance is limited by the grip of the front axle, a condition that tends to enhance the Mercedes, while the Red Bull has shown to prefer the rear limited tracks being able to exploit the greater grip at the rear. Christian Horner and Andrew Shovlin, spokespersons for Red Bull and Mercedes respectively, agree in outlining a prediction in favor of the Silver Arrows in Saudi Arabia, also considering how overall the W12 proved extremely fast on the straight. In the case of Lewis Hamilton, the advantage will be even more accentuated by the team’s choice to reuse the still relatively fresh engine used exclusively in Brazil which, having to compete only for the next two rounds, will be able to release more power than the unit mounted in Qatar.
Mercedes will therefore be able to benefit from a track that can potentially enhance the characteristics of the W12, as long as it does not run into balance problems and is able to define an optimal set-up. Recently Lewis Hamilton gave an interview to the editorial staff of TheRace.com in which he underlined just how the superiority expressed by the team in Brazil was the result of a perfect set-up, coming to find a balance of the car rarely experienced since the beginning of the year: “Getting the W12 where we wanted to be was very, very tough. In Brazil I got the car exactly the way I wanted it, we literally hit the mark. And it happened once or twice this year “.
Once again the research work on the structure will constitute the necessary condition for the predictions of the eve to materialize or, on the contrary, overturn. Like what I experienced in Qatar, the debut on a new track and the absence of previous information will place even more emphasis on the accuracy of the simulation work carried out in the factory. The dispute of the event at night will also ensure that FP2 will be the only practice session to take place in the same qualifying and race conditions, while FP1 and FP3 will be held before sunset. Finally, the track will be subject to a strong evolution, starting from a green asphalt without any residual rubber and probably still dirty from the recently completed works.
With a view to Jeddah, for Red Bull it will be crucial to have solved the problem at the DRS which causes the mobile profile to oscillate dangerously. In Qatar, the defect had been circumvented by mounting the high-load wing whose DRS activation mechanism proved to be more stable, but this option will not be viable in Saudi Arabia. The track requires significantly lower load levels and enhances aerodynamic efficiency, i.e. the ability to generate downforce by limiting drag. Using the wing from maximum load again would mean giving up the possibility of aiming for success from the start. At home Red Bull will also have to undo the engine knot, whether to continue with the same unit now in its seventh race, which seems to be the most likely option, or to opt instead for a replacement in view of the Abu Dhabi grand final.
Pirelli: softened choices
On the tire front, Pirelli has opted for the intermediate compounds of its range, the C2, C3 and C4, one step softer than those used in Qatar. Lateral stresses will be the main source of stress for the tires, but the absence of data from previous editions makes it difficult to estimate whether it will be a race with one or more stops, the number of which will also be strongly influenced by any Safety Car entrances. . The minimum static inflation pressures recommended by the Italian tire dealer, on the other hand, are 23.5 psi at the front and 20.5 psi for the rear.
The numbers provided by Brembo about the braking system testify to the rapid and smooth nature of the track. The riders use the brakes in just 7 corners compared to a total of 27, with a usage time of around 9.6 seconds per lap, a value equal to that of Imola which, however, is shorter than 1.3 kilometers. Furthermore, braking never exceeds 5 g of deceleration, with the most demanding braking located before the last corner, where the cars slow down from over 300 km / h up to about 110 km / h of entry, with a peak deceleration of 4.3 g. Overall, the Jeddah runway was classified with a severity of 3 out of 5 for the braking system.
If on the one hand the challenge at the top promises to be full of variables, although Mercedes enjoys the favors of the prediction, on the other hand the confrontation in the center-group appears decidedly unpredictable. The history of the World Cup has taught us that Ferrari and McLaren they expressed greater consistency than the competition, but the race in Qatar showed how Alpine, Aston Martin and AlphaTauri are not far off, able to worry the Woking and Maranello teams if they fail to decide on a set-up at the track level. The hope is that the Jeddah race will be free of accidents and related Safety Car, but if the scenario of a chaotic Grand Prix materializes, whoever emerges from the center-group could collect a much more important result than usual.
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