The presence of one of the longest straights on the calendar would suggest that Red Bull will land in Baku as the favorite, according to what we have seen so far in the championship. The characteristics of the Azerbaijani track, however, outline a much more complex scenario, offering yet another direct comparison between the RB18s and the F1-75s. The recent four-game winning streak for Milton Keynes’s cars has also led a slice of the public to label the current championship as over. The successes of Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez, however, often came at the end of a close fight with Ferrari, without neglecting also how the Barcelona and Monaco races were decided by the technical retirement of Charles Leclerc in Spain and by the continuous overturns of strategic front in the Principality. Therefore, the current picture, although apparently distorted by the disproportion of victories to the prerogative of Red Bull, still sees a great balance of performance between the two cars which, combined with a compact world championship standings, outlines a more open championship than it has been so far.
The two long straights that dominate the first and third sectors of the Azerbaijani track pose great emphasis on the speed qualities of the single-seaters. In the first third of the season, Red Bull showed superiority on this front over Ferrari, partly the daughter of a highly efficient and therefore low drag body. However, the different speed on the straight is also linked to the different set-up philosophies adopted by the two teams, necessary to make the aerodynamic concepts of the respective cars work at their best. It will therefore be necessary to assess the extent of the speed gap according to the set-ups approved for Baku and in particular how these have evolved after the aerodynamic updates introduced in Barcelona. It is also possible that Ferrari may bring the new low-load rear wing announced in Miami to its debutbut so far never used in competition.
However, top speed is not the only discriminating element of performance in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani track sees a preponderance of low-mileage 90 ° curves, highlighting the traction qualities at the exitthe importance of which is underlined by what happened in the past edition. In fact, Ferrari managed to grab pole position even with one of the slowest cars on the straight, leveraging on an extreme low load set-up, but above all on the goodness of the rear of the SF21. In recent years, the Scuderia di Maranello has shown a design trend in enhancing the stability of the rear, showing off a good mechanical grip of the suspension unit and an excellent strategy for delivering the electric power of the hybrid. These qualities also remained on the F1-75, a car which, when not subject to compromise structures with fast behavior as in Miami and Barcelona, expressed greater efficiency in the slow than the RB18. This characteristic emerged in Munich and will probably also emerge in Baku, given the absence of high-mileage curves and therefore of particular compromises in the balance.
The repeated departures in the Azerbaijani capital therefore subject tires to mainly longitudinal stresses. As proof of this, the Pirelli prescriptions see a significantly lower static inflation pressure at the rear, with 21.5 psi versus 24.5 psi at the front, thus indicating a greater increase in the pressures at the rear during running due to the repeated traction efforts required. . The simulations conducted by Brembo they also tell how the curves of the track are tackled at low speed, around 100 km / h, a feature in common with Monte Carlo. Unlike the race in the Principality, however, the long straights require the adoption of low downforce structures, which is why in Baku the mechanical grip guaranteed by the suspension group gains even more emphasis than the aerodynamic one than it was in Monaco. Several aspects to be taken into consideration, therefore, which accompany them the news on the power unit front: it is likely that a fresh unit will be installed at Red Bull, the second season, while Leclerc will use a third turbocharger unit.
Curve | Final speed (Brembo simulation) |
1 | 109 km / h |
2 | 104 km / h |
3 | 97 km / h |
4 | 86 km / h |
5 | 102 km / h |
7 | 81 km / h |
8 | 114 km / h |
11 | 97 km / h |
15 | 90 km / h |
16 | 127 km / h |
The scenario behind the two leading teams is to be deciphered, with Mercedes, McLaren and Alfa Romeo who alternately held the role of third force. The Frecce d’Argento denote a scarce effectiveness in the slow, thus assuming a wider gap from the top than in Spain. The W13s also suffered in Monte Carlo, another track with an abundance of slow corners, but the atypical nature of the Monegasque race invites us not to draw hasty conclusions. McLaren has improved considerably at low mileage after the evolution package introduced in Spain, setting good conditions for the trip to Baku. Finally, Alfa Romeo is among the cars on the grid that perform best in the slow. In Monaco the failures suffered in practice limited the time spent on the track, compromising the entire weekend, but in Azerbaijan the C42s are expected to be in better shape.
On a low-grip, poorly abrasive asphalt with curves that transfer limited vertical energy, Pirelli has opted for the softest tires of the entire range, the C3, C4 and C5. A crucial aspect will be thermal management and in particular the temperature of the tires, very critical given the low level of aerodynamic load used, the low grip of the road surface and the long straights that cool the tires. Already during the pre-season tests in Barcelona Mario Isola had declared that he expected some more difficulties in the Azerbaijani stage: “We know there are circuits, like Baku, where getting the front end up is quite difficult. In case of cool conditions in Baku, heating the front tires with the tire warmers limited to 70 ° C could be more difficult ”. As in Monaco, therefore, the overcut could prove more effective in the race than the early stop, unless the weather conditions vary.
As for the brakes, Brembo classified the Azerbaijani track with a severity of 4 out of 5 for the braking system, an assessment similar to that of Montreal, a notoriously severe course. Baku is a Stop & Go track, with repeated acceleration followed by sharp braking from high speeds. It is no coincidence that in 8 of the 10 disconnections the peak load on the brake pedal exceeds 100 kg. The most demanding braking remains that of Turn 1, with an estimated speed delta of about 340 to 110 km / h in 137 meters, with a peak deceleration of 4.4 g.
It was said at the opening that speed is not everything in Baku, a statement whose validity goes beyond just straight-line travel. In fact, so far Ferrari has shown that it has the fastest car on average in qualifying, with five pole positions out of seven Grands Prix, with the impression that after the Barcelona update package the F1-75 is back to being so also in the race. However, competitiveness alone is not enough to win. “We understand that being competitive is one thing, while winning is completely different“, declared Mattia Binotto in the post Monaco. Therefore, for Ferrari the primary objective in Azerbaijan will be to be able to realize the potential expressed so far by the Red 2022, an essential condition for starting the comeback on Red Bull.
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