The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix embodies a long-awaited event destined to be remembered for a long time. Yas Marina will stage the final act of a World Cup whose dispute was not initially foreseen, since before the pandemic the leaders of the Circus had planned to introduce the new regulations in the current year. The extension of the current technical cycle and the partial freezing of development have instead created the conditions for the establishment of a context of perpetual equilibrium between the two top stables. Part of the merit is also attributable to the aerodynamic restrictions on the bottom and diffuser introduced at the beginning of the season, which most influenced cars with a low rake angle such as Mercedes, undermining their undisputed superiority of the previous season.
The Abu Dhabi round will not be the first final of this year, since from Brazil onwards a situation in the classification continued that every race could potentially have been decisive. A single victory for Verstappen would have meant a serious mortgage on the title, with Mercedes having faced the last three races with the knowledge that a single defeat could have resulted in the end of the world championship fight. The reigning champions have faced the final stages with greater pressure, the aftermath of which in terms of psychological fatigue will be more relevant than for Red Bull, provided there is room for the presence of an effective difference considering the tension that pervades both. the environments.
After the two stages on the unpublished tracks of Losail and Jeddah, the World Championship will be decided on a track that has been on the calendar since 2009, which however this year has been renewed with some not insignificant changes. The hairpin that led onto the first straight and the previous chicane were replaced by a single curve, while the double chicane at the end of the second straight at the entrance to the third sector was connected by a single wide-radius curve with a barely mentioned banking. . The official numbering goes like this 21 to 16 curves overall, with the length of the track shortened by 273 meters and which is now 5281 meters, which is why the number of laps in the race rises from 55 to 58.
However, the interventions carried out on the Yas Marina route extend beyond those just described. In the winding third sector that winds around the harbor and the hotel, the radius of the curves has been slightly increased, so that more speed can be brought in and a smoother ride. The penultimate corner in particular will be tackled in full without any particular problems, increasing the intensity of the last braking. Of the 16 curves in total, 7 are covered with the accelerator pedal, while the actual curves remain 9. The simulations predict that with the changes to the track lap times will drop by about 14 seconds. Taking Max Verstappen’s pole position in 2020 as a reference, one can easily estimate how the average lap speed thus increases by over 20 km / h, going from the previous 210 km / h to the expected 232 km / h on average.
The basic structure of the track has remained unchanged, but the novelties require a change of approach in the definition of the structure. The previous layout was dominated by low speed corners, in which the importance of downforce is reduced, but at the same time the low average lap mileage allowed to increase the load level without paying excessive duty with greater aerodynamic drag. In its new version, the track instead has a higher average speed which increases the focus on resistance to advancement, but at the same time the longer cornering distances increase the importance of the grip deriving from the aerodynamic load. It will be up to the teams to better interpret the track in its new configuration, which is expected to lead to the adoption of medium load setups.
Precisely the probable adoption of average aerodynamic load levels has allowed a Pirelli to select the softest compounds in their range, the C3, C4 and C5, in contrast to the harder one-step tires used in Jeddah. On paper, this scenario is more suited to Red Bull, as throughout the season Mercedes has shown that it is more at ease with the harder compounds. In Saudi Arabia, however, Red Bull highlighted some difficulties in sending the tires in the optimal temperature window, in contrast to what was seen at the beginning of the season when Mercedes instead complained about the most critical issues on this front. In Abu Dhabi the problem could recur, also thanks to the medium-low grip asphalt, against the high grip encountered in Jeddah. Finally, the minimum static tire inflation pressures recommended by Pirelli are on average, with 21.5 psi at the front and 20.0 psi at the rear.
Despite the changes, the Yas Marina track continues to present itself as which one a track rear limited, where the performance on the lap is therefore strongly influenced by the stability of the rear when exiting the slow corners, which constitutes one of the strengths of Red Bull in comparison with Mercedes. The introduction of the long curve to the left at the end of the second straight, to be tackled at medium-high speeds, will also force Mercedes itself to increase the speed at which to stall the diffuser on the straight, reducing its advantage on the overall lap, as on the new curve the car will need all the aerodynamic load possible.
The track would therefore seem to marry more with the characteristics of Red Bull, but the whole season has been a succession of races that have denied the predictions of the eve. In Austin and Jeddah a much superior Mercedes was expected, but in qualifying the greatest potential of Red Bull emerged, which, however, was not able to realize the favors of the prediction on the eve of the appointments in Hungary and Brazil. In light of the balance between the RB16B and the W12, what made the difference from race to race was the effectiveness of the individual set-ups, partly responsible for the return of Mercedes in the second half of the championship. The Brackley team did indeed introduce a package of updates at Silverstone, but Hamilton himself stated that the team also managed to better understand the car and progressively extract its real potential.
In Yas Marina there will be numerous decisions against the teams on which the assignment of titles will potentially depend, starting from the level of aggression with which to exploit the power units, playing on the edge of reliability. The engines will have to be calibrated to perform at their best, with the awareness that any safety margin would be wasted as there are no more races scheduled, but also that an excess would result in retirement and renunciation of the title. It will also be essential to make the most of FP2, as it will be the only free practice session scheduled for dusk under the same conditions in which qualifying and the race will take place.
The hope is that in Abu Dhabi we can witness a heated confrontation, but without accidents and technical failures. The risk that one of the two scenarios could occur is however present and even more probable than in previous appointments, which is why even the confrontation in the center-group could have something more important at stake than the usual fifth place. The history of motorsport teaches how the decisive races for the title are often anomalous, chaotic and not without twists, also children of the tension that induces the direct protagonists to make mistakes. The underdogs ahead of Abu Dhabi are for those who will be able to keep their clarity as best as possible, not only the two drivers, but also their respective teams. The weight of the set-up work was emphasized in defining the balance of power between the two teams, which is why clarity will be essential inside the box in managing free practice and in defining the set-up, without neglecting the mechanics. the strategists and thousands of remote operating engineers at their respective locations. The direct challenge between Hamilton and Verstappen enhances the individualistic side of Formula 1, whose nature, however, remains that of a team sport, where success is the result of the clarity, precision and effectiveness of the work of thousands of people.
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