Bad news about the spread of more contagious strains of the virus, coupled with tightening restrictions in much of Europe, is dampening prospects for short-term recovery. The last to put numbers on this increase in uncertainty have been the 66 experts consulted by the European Central Bank (ECB) between January 7 and 11: they reduce the growth of the euro area for 2021 to 4.4% – nine tenths less—, although they raise that of 2022 by 1.1 percentage points to 3.7%. Progress will moderate towards less volatile rates in 2023, when GDP will improve by 1.9%.
The transfer of the recovery from 2021 to 2022 has been a regular move in the predictions of many analysts so far this year. Despite the optimism initially aroused by the vaccination campaign, the rates are slower than in the United Kingdom and the United States, reaching immunity will still take months and the third wave will leave its negative mark in the first half.
The expectations of the expert panel differ from those of the ECB itself. While those surveyed still believe that the bulk of the recovery will occur in 2021, when European funds will also begin to flow, the body chaired by Christine Lagarde estimates that the economy of the Nineteen will close the year with a rise of 3.9%, and the next one will rebound a little more, to 4.2%. In her appearance this Thursday, the French leader warned that the bad data from the fourth quarter were already spreading to the first of 2021, with the services sector particularly damaged, which could return the eurozone to recession.
The forecasts about unemployment by the panel of experts are slightly more negative than in the previous consultation. The expected rates are 8.9%, 8.3% and 7.8% in 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively. While inflation figures remain intact at 1.7%.