The Government its assignment policy continues to its independence partners, essential to remain in power. While negotiating with together in what terms the “integral management of immigration competencies” is required by Puigdemont, agreed with ERC … The increase in the template of the Mossos d’Esquadra up to 25,000 agents or that the municipal secretaries will depend on the Generalitat and not on the central administration, as was the case until now. In principle, neither measures pose problems, even less when independence is in its lowest hours, according to state security sources consulted by ABC. But they make some reflections.
“Increasing the template of the Mossos, or changing the dependence of the municipal secretaries is not problematic with a Generalitat as the current one, loyal to the State,” explain the sources; “But the situation can be complicated a lot if it is in the hands of independence -a hypothesis that is not far -fetched in the medium term,” and decides to launch another challenge. In that case, the concessions that have just been reinforced their capabilities and would be more difficult to respond ». All this, in addition, when the presence of the State in that community is less and less, With about 9,000 professionals in total between police, civil guard and armed forces.
Of course, it is a theoretical, but feasible scenario, for which several conditions must occur: that governs independencethat there is a very favorable public opinion to raise the challenge, that the constitutionalists are in decline or are not able to understand each other and that the nationalist leaders themselves take the step despite the failure of 2017. Even so it would not be sufficient, because they would have to involve essential institutionslike the Mossos d’Esquadra.
The Autonomous Police work in an exemplary way and full satisfaction of the State. Their relations with the rest of the security forces are excellent, so that today it is impossible to get involved in a project like that. But again the experts warn that “that is the current photography and the short term; But the first generations of Mossos are withdrawn and They are replaced young people with a different training. These new generations, conveniently indoctrinated, could be the germ of a disturbing evolution in the Catalan police.
Oak order
Independentism dreams of re -raising a challenge to the State and some sectors have prepared strategies and plans to achieve independence since 2014, for good or strength. Until autumn of 2023 these Radical sectors They were controlled by intelligence services – also information on security forces – that informed the government of their activities.
From that date, however, the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, ordered to abandon the follow -up of Catalan independence so as not to bother its nationalist partners. By then, in addition, the controversy of the national police infiltrated in the ‘Independent’ environments of Catalonia had already emerged. The information that is today of these groups is, therefore, much less precise, What adds elements of concern.
As ABC has been able to know, in some of these latest intelligence reports there was accounts of days such as those organized by the Societat d’Estudis Militars (SEM), an independence entity whose financing raises doubts given the level of its activities. He PSC asked about this matterbut sem argues that it is financed with its partners.
In these events the main failures that were committed in 2017 were analyzed: the lack of its own farm -the Sánchez government already advances so that it is possible; The lack of international recognition -The executive allows a great exterior activity of independence, with the opening of ’embassies’- and the control of the territory, which have much closer in case of conflict if the template of the Mossos reaches 25,000 agents -So will be in 2030-, to which the rural agents would be added-more than 500 in 2022, growing and armed-,, local police and firefighters. There are also forest defense groups (ADF), formed by volunteers, about 8,000 in total.
«For this control of the territory to be useful in A secessionist challenge Open -military sources explain -it is not necessary to be permanent. With which they manage to demonstrate for a sufficient period that Spain is not able to master a part of their country they would force the international community to mediation. At that time, independence would have already won, because It would be to sit at a table at the same level as the state».
In those same acts of the SEM, Andrew Lambert, professor of Naval History of the Department of War Studies of King’s College, spoke about the defense model of a future Catalan state, which in his opinion would go through the creation of an Navy for the control of territorial waters. For Lambert, it would be very important for the Balearic Islands to join that new country, which has a strategic relevance in relation to the control of those Waters and Continental Catalonia.
The theoretical development of what Catalan armed forces should be for years. The SEM has been very active in this field, and advocates by a land, aerial, naval force and a territorial reserve, so that the first three cover The entire spectrum of the conflict and the last one would specialize in the defense of the territory. They would be formed in total by about 25,000 individuals and in principle they would use the inherited infrastructure of the Spanish army.
Capacities
For experts, the important thing is not the number of military planned but the capacities – Mando and Control, Air Space Control, Coast, Ports and Airports Protection …- What they need. To get them they have those already have, Even in embryonic phasethe Mossos, which as they increase effective, assume, as logical, new missions. There is, for example, his maritime police, or the Air Space Control Unit … The Catalan Cybersecurity Agency or the Catalan Space Agency would also contribute capacities.
Even in the sem days the models were studied to achieve independence, in particular that of Slovenia, from which Juns leaders such as Quim Torra or Clara Ponsatí are supported. He explained, for example, Dimitri Rupel, former Foreign Minister, who recalled that they were accused of doing things unilaterally, which he defended, «Because if we wouldn’t be independent now».
Nationalism is also fixed in the Latvian model, in which the only armed units were a territorial guard without the capacity to face an army. But in both case the opportunity was seen when the parent state was so weakened by the internal problems that They were no longer able to deal with a revolution.
According to the state security sources consulted, if such a movement occurred in Spain now -now hypothesis now unlikely but possible in the medium term -the response in favor and against the state response would make it impossible in practice that security forces could do the same as in 2017.
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