European Parliament elections 2024: forecasts, positions of the far right in France and Germany, politics in Ukraine

Based on the results of the European Parliament elections, which begin on June 6, the influence of the far right and Eurosceptics on European politics is expected to increase, according to European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). This will lead to a weakening of support for Ukraine in the European Union, the Rome Institute of International Relations is confident. Center-left and green parties could lose their seats in parliament.

In addition, the ECFR pointed out that most far-right European parties allegedly traditionally have ties to Moscow. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has already responded to this statement, accusing Russia of influencing the electoral process in the European Union. He claimed an increase in interference attempts “especially from Russia,” but provided no evidence. The diplomat only hinted that influence on voters is carried out through social networks.

Elections to the European Parliament will be held from June 6 to 9. According to polls, right-wing populists have every chance of winning in nine EU countries – Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia. In Germany, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Finland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and Spain they can take second and third places.

The conflict in Ukraine became an important factor in the elections to the European Parliament

According to Natalie Tocci, director of the Rome Institute of International Relations, the threat that the results of the elections to the EP will bring to weakening support for Ukraine is very high due to the strengthening of far-right parties.

According to a survey conducted by Kapa Research, the conflict in Ukraine has become an important factor influencing Europeans. 35 percent of respondents called the situation in Ukraine a significant problem. This topic was only two percentage points behind the issue of EU immigration policy, taking third place in the list of the main fears of European voters. Economic uncertainty came first.

In turn, analysis ECFR shows that the majority of newly elected EP deputies will support the continued provision of financial and military assistance to Ukraine from the European Union, although representatives will have to be more sensitive to the mood of the citizens of their countries and their attitude towards the Ukrainian issue.

Center party leaders will cede some mandates to the right

The European Council on Foreign Relations also believes that the two largest factions in the European Parliament – the center-right European People’s Party (ENP) and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will continue to lose their mandates.

The ENP is expected to remain the largest faction in the European Parliament, retaining most agenda-setting powers, as well as choosing the next President of the European Commission. However, the second largest force in parliament could be two far-right factions – European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID). Moreover, based on the election results, ID can increase the number of seats in the EP from 58 to 84.

It also became known about the desire of Marine Le Pen’s French far-right National Rally party, part of the ID, to create an alliance with conservatives and the center-right after the elections to strengthen its power. MEP and party leader Jordan Bardella has vowed to become a “blocking minority” in the EP.

It is noted that Marine Le Pen’s party has increased its advantage over French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance coalition by almost 18 percent.

Alternative for Germany spy scandal divides European right-wingers

The unity of far-right politicians was seriously hampered by the “Chinese spy scandal”, in which Maximilian Kra, the main candidate for the elections to the European Parliament of the Alternative for Germany, was involved. At the end of April, his assistant Jian Guo was detained by Dresden police on suspicion of spying for China. According to the investigation, the man conveyed information to Beijing about the work of the EP and about representatives of the Chinese opposition movement in Germany.

Kra himself, a controversial figure even within his party, is known for his Nazi statements. Because of the politician’s words about SS officers, the National Association quarreled with its German colleagues. The French considered it too risky to unite with the AfD in the European elections, even despite the opportunity to regain about 50 mandates and become one big nationalist and anti-migration political force.

Later information emerged that Identity and Democracy also intended to expel AfD members from its membership. The factionalists were prompted to take this step by a series of incidents involving Mr. Kra and, consequently, the German delegation, which tarnished the reputation of the enti
re right-wing group in parliament.

How are elections to the European Parliament held?

The European Parliament is the only one of the three main institutions of the European Union that is elected by direct voting. Despite the fact that MEPs do not have the right of legislative initiative, they influence the process of adopting legislative resolutions, approve the composition of the European Commission and the candidacy for the post of EC Chairman nominated by the leaders of EU countries, and can also announce a vote of no confidence in the head of the EC.

Each EU member votes separately, forming one or more electoral districts. Citizens vote for national parties, which subsequently unite into European political parties and form factions in the European Parliament.

The mandate of a European Deputy is valid for five years. The upcoming elections will be the tenth since 1979 and the first since Brexit – the UK’s exit from the European Union. Changes to the electoral procedure this year affected Germany, where the voting age was lowered from 19 to 16 years. The same rules apply in Austria, Belgium and Malta. The number of deputies from each country is determined in proportion to its population. Germany and France have the largest number of representatives in the EP – 96 and 81 places, respectively. Small countries such as Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg each have six seats.