European elections, decisive peak turnout: two parties are shaking. Here are the ones

Lower expected turnout in the South, also due to the variable weather. And the ones shaking are the 5 Star Movement and Forza Italia

We are almost there. Just a few days and the polls are finally opening for the European elections. Polls open on Saturday from 3pm to 11pm and Sunday from 7am to 11pm. Then the counting of the ballots. As is known, the publication of polls is absolutely prohibited but the parties continue to study sentiments and try to understand what could happen this weekend. According to the rumors coming from Brothers of Italy and from PDthe two main political forces, the belief is that of a polarization of the vote and therefore of conflict Giorgia Meloni – Elly Schlein which should/could reward above all the two major parties, the majority and the opposition. But they are just sensations without any scientific confirmation.

There is one fact, however, that scares some political forces more than others, who could actually be at an advantage, and that is the turnout at the polls. Before the blackout on surveys the data were more or less crystallized on the values ​​of the 2022 Policies with a participation of 63.91% (negative record for Parliament). Now almost all pollsters estimate aturnout around 50%, perhaps even lower. So how will that 15-16% fewer voters impact the results of the European elections?

There is another fact to take into account which is fundamental. L’turnoutexperts say, could be particularly low especially in the South and, a non-trivial element, while in the North the weather forecast predicts the return of storms for the weekend, thus disadvantaging trips and trips, in the South there will be high pressure and temperatures above 30 degrees in the first weekend with schools closed. The perfect ingredient for going to the seaside to enjoy the first sun and the first summer heat.

If these forecasts were confirmed, a particularly low participation in the elections in the South and higher in the North would above all damage, at a national level, the 5 Star Movement which has its strongest electoral base in the South, largely made up of “orphans” of citizenship income. While in the North, Lombardy and Veneto in the lead, according to pre-blackout polls, the Five Star Movement was very weak and below double figures.

But be careful, too Forza Italia it has its greatest consensus especially in the southern regions, as the latest regional elections of recent months perfectly demonstrate. And the turnout data could penalize Antonio Tajani’s party and favor instead League which in the North, despite a decline compared for example to the record of the 2019 European Championships, certainly has much higher percentages than in the South (Matteo Salvini, thanks also to the very strong General Roberto Vannacci – they say – the Center aims to improve the political data and the double digit).

For the rest there is great optimism for overcoming the 4% barrier among Renzians of United States of Europe while some concerns are felt at home Calendar-Action. Cautious optimism always among the minor parties for Green Left Alliance.