'Europe must begin to reduce its dependence on the United States'

European leaders breathe a sigh of relief now that the mid-term election in USA one did not occur Republican ‘red tide’. Although the House of Representatives passed into the hands of that party, there was not the ‘beating down’ that some expected: the Democrats retain control of the Senate, and it is clear that Congress will not be as full of isolationist sympathizers donald trump and of Vladimir Putin. But for Europeans, this is not a time to celebrate, but rather to prepare for the next potential storm.

Over the past year, Europe has enjoyed an extraordinary moment of transatlantic unity. The alliance with USA US gave a united response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine: coordinated sanctions were imposed and the United States consulted with European governments before proceeding with talks on the
future of European security with the kremlin.

The NATO (declared ‘brain dead’ by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2019) is in good health and is on track to welcome Finland and Sweden as new members. And finally the Europeans are spending more on defense; even Germany achieved the long-promised goal of 2 percent of GDP.

(Also: Spain: this is known from the 6 bomb letters sent to embassies and the president).

Furthermore, Americans and Europeans are in general agreement on the strategic challenge posed by China, especially now that its president Xi Jinping (who has ruled with economic threats and an aggressive foreign policy) extended and consolidated his power. There is a strong feeling that ‘the West is back’. The United States and Europe are putting a new political unity at the service of shared values and a common vision of the kind of world they want.

Donald Trump, former president of the United States and who is seeking re-election.

But there are storm clouds forming. In the immediate future, it is still possible that a Republican-controlled House of Representatives will try to resist the idea that the US should bear a disproportionate share of the cost of defending Ukraine. As my colleague at the European Council on Foreign Relations Jeremy Shapiro points out in a recent commentary, the United States promised $24 billion in military aid to Ukraine, while Europe only committed half that amount. Why should Americans pay more than other countries that are neighbors of Ukraine?

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Also, in the longer term, the debate over how to define a Ukrainian victory may create new tensions. The Biden administration, France and Germany say there will have to be peace talks at some point, while Poland and the Baltic states have made it clear they want to see Russia humiliated. While, Trump appointed himself to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.

Another issue where tensions are boiling under the surface is China. Just because the transatlantic allies are moving in the same direction does not mean that the point of arrival they are aiming for is the same. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently visited Beijing, where he showed little interest in decoupling the European economy from China’s (although he acknowledges the dangers of overdependence).

Europeans are also alarmed by the protectionism implicit in two recent US laws (‘chips and science’ and ‘reducing inflation’) and by the Commerce Department’s decision to restrict cooperation on high-tech .

The inflation-reducing law means a near shutdown of the US electric vehicle market, even for companies in allied jurisdictions such as Europe, Japan and South Korea. It is only natural that the Europeans fear becoming collateral damage in the US economic war against China (and they have yet to be asked for diplomatic support on the Taiwan question).

United States flag.

Trump is not ‘dead’

But the greatest dangers still come from the domestic politics of the United States. Many commentators wonder if the lackluster performance of the Republicans in the last election will mark the end of Trump’s hold on the party. Not only did they lose many of their favorite candidates, but also Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida and a leading contender for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, won re-election by a large majority.

DeSantis is popular, but if he challenges Trump, he may end up facing the same fate as Jeb Bush and the other rejected candidates in the 2016 Republican primary.

And above all, Trumpism is not dead. Republican candidates will continue to wage bitter culture wars and take Trumpian stands against free trade, immigration, foreign intervention, and Europe. And given the deteriorating state of the global economy, the conditions may be ripe for Republicans to do better in the next election, especially if they learn from the mistakes of 2022.

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For all these reasons, Europeans have to use the next two years to reduce their dependence on the United States. If Biden runs for re-election and wins, a more self-sufficient Europe may be a much better partner for Washington. But if Trump, or some other Eurosceptic figure, wins, the Europeans will at least be better positioned to weather the storm. With only two years left to put up effective defenses against a future ‘red tide’, it is time for the Europeans to build their own kind of wall.