“Moving forward: there is no future for the people of Europe other than that of the Union” Jean Monnet
The European project was born from the embers of the Second World War. In a very particular historical context, characterized by a growing conflict and ideological dissidence between the Soviet Union and the United States, the European democratic nations came together in a process that should be described as successful in general terms. Community Europe has managed to consolidate itself since then as a space of freedom, democracy and safeguard of fundamental human rights. And the subsequent Union has known how to coexist with its own contradictions, consubstantial in a project made up of several dozen States with different historical trajectories, as well as with diverse social and cultural structures.
The cradle of the welfare state
There is a recurring idea that makes it possible to define all the countries that have joined the Union project in its various stages: that of increases in human development indicators, increases based on the strength of the welfare state.
The lessons of the past, learned between the wars and during the Cold War, served to reinforce the role of institutions that were able to develop a reformist agenda. This was so thanks to the consolidation of some advanced fiscal models, capable of promoting the broad social and economic consensus that characterized post-war society.
The consolidation of the welfare state has been, indeed, one of the hallmarks of the European project, to which is added the transfer of powers in different areas of macroeconomic policy. The Europe of trade and complete integration of markets had the mission of functioning as a conflict prevention mechanism between member states.
The economic and political nationalism that had devastated Europe and given wings to fascism had to be replaced by a cooperation agenda that would articulate a Europe of the peoples, united by common values and interests.
The community institutional architecture itself, with its system of checks and balances and voting modalities -including the veto in the Council-, was designed with this purpose of balancing national interests and major European projects.
The search for broad consensus has always been difficult in this regard. Many of the negotiations at the highest level have been resolved in marathon sessions behind closed doors, but over time, many of the fundamental objectives have been achieved.
Institutions and human development
The member countries of the European Union are characterized by having achieved high levels of human development. Following the qualifications of the United Nations in 2019, of the EU countries, only Bulgaria and Romania (position 53 and 54) were outside the ranking of the first 50 countries in the world in the scale of Human Development Indicators (HDI), while four were in the top ten positions.
Bulgaria went from 0.7 (2000) to 0.81 (2019) in said reference and Romania shows a very similar positive trend. What is relevant in this matter is to observe the positive trend in the medium term that these nations have experienced.
HDIs offer the broadest possible view of the level of social, economic, democratic and cultural development of a State or region. It is an indicator that analyzes multiple variables, including objective material conditions, health care, access to education, institutional functioning and transparency, and the protection of fundamental rights.
In short, we understand that this improvement in the objective conditions of life in Europe is based mainly on the aforementioned strengthening of the welfare state and on the multilateral trade agreements signed within the community. The European Union has thus been able to consolidate itself as an integrated market of more than four hundred and forty million inhabitants, endowed, in many cases, with a common currency.
Globalization and democracy
Along with the lights, the European panorama also offers, however, some shadows. Fiscal uniformity among its Member States is a pending account. One of its greatest weaknesses is observed in this lack of tax harmony.
The difficulties in achieving the transfer of national sovereignty with a view to the articulation of community policies in agriculture, industrial policy or fishing are also in the media spotlight. Both for its direct effect on the development of the Union, and for its ability to mobilize populist political currents.
Protectionism and criticism of globalization have gained ground in recent times among a relevant part of European public opinion. The problems derived from the increase in migratory flows, growing inequality, problems in international governance and disaffection with respect to democratic institutions could be capable of severely eroding them.
Corona crisis and war
In this context, the management of the health crisis caused by the coronavirus reactivated the European project and showed its capacity to mobilize resources in all areas. European solidarity was evident in the availability of public funds and in the economic reactivation projects.
In addition, the reactivation has been considered as an opportunity to promote processes of economic and ecological transformation. Sustainable and inclusive growth, as well as the reduction of polluting emissions, are the basis of massive investment projects known as EU Next Generation funds.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, on the other hand, has once again placed the Union in front of the mirror of its own existential weaknesses, beyond an obvious submission to the military interests of NATO or the inability to manage its own foreign policy.
The war has opened a new front by revealing excessive European energy dependence on authoritarian regimes or autocracies. Countries and regimes where fundamental human rights, which make up the philosophical essence of the European project, are flagrantly violated.
The Europe of democracy and freedom has been able to strengthen itself for decades in the heat of fossil fuels and trade agreements with partners that could not, probably, be part of the community institutions.
Benevolent autocrats, using the idea put forward by William Easterly, have been part of conferences, receptions, and official processions. They have been present in situations of prominence in international forums for the sheer economic convenience of Western countries.
It seems that in February 2022 Vladimir Putin decided that the time had come to activate all the political, economic and military capital accumulated up to that point.
The cost of democracy
Europe is at war, an economic and trade war at least. And he finds himself at a crossroads with a difficult exit. The economic sanctions arranged to punish the Russian economy and dissuade the Kremlin from advancing the ceasefire do not seem to have the desired effect.
The international price of gas and oil has risen and Europe’s dependence on Russian supplies has proven more entrenched than expected. Therefore, the main source of financing for one of the parties to the conflict has not been severely damaged.
Without a feasible alternative in the short term, the European economy necessarily remains anchored to Russian gas imports, and there is also no unanimity regarding the need to establish a common policy in this regard.
On the contrary, the strengthening of the strategic alliances between China and the Russian Federation in energy matters further weaken the European negotiating position.
A ghost haunts Europe
While all this is happening, inflation is silently beginning to erode the real economy of European families and companies.
Historical experience offers ample evidence of the short-term relevance of inflationary processes. Sustained inflation over time weakens consumption, discourages investment and savings, stirs mistrust in the economy, mobilizes low incomes and ends up bringing down governments.
The reaction to the problems generated by globalization and external dependency can also translate into an increase in protectionist policies. Protectionism and economic nationalism as supposed balm of Fierabrás to which cultural elements of an excluding nature are added.
In short, the big question on the table, and to which European citizens must answer, is whether they are willing to pay the price for defending their principles of freedom and democracy in their broadest senses. For staying true to the principles and ideas set forth in these few lines.
It does not seem too smart to hide the problems that would arise from this, but we must not lose sight of the fact that the European project has been able to get ahead of other similar, or even more complicated, moments of anxiety.
This article has been published in ‘
The Conversation‘.
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