It is still unclear what Moscow intends to achieve with the massive deployment of troops on the border with Ukraine. Brussels makes it clear that aggression would result in clear reactions from the EU.
Brussels – The EU wants to prevent Russia from a feared attack on Ukraine with a specific package of sanctions. “Aggression must have a price tag,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Friday.
“That is why we will communicate these points to Russia in advance in an appropriate form (…).” However, they will not speak about this in public, she added on the sidelines of a meeting with the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD).
Von der Leyen left it open whether an operating ban on the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany, could also be part of the sanctions package. “In general, it is important that energy must never be used as a means of pressure and that the energy security of Europe and its neighbors must be guaranteed,” she said.
Scholz said: “It is very clear that Germany, the European Union and many other countries would react if there were border violations.” But just as clear in this situation is that the task must be aimed at preventing precisely that . “We want security and cooperation in Europe. We want the borders to remain and remain inviolable. And that’s what it’s currently about, “said the SPD politician.
Concern about troop deployment
The background to the statements are the findings of NATO, according to which Russia has currently drawn between 75,000 and 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine. The developments bring back memories of 2014. At that time, Russia had annexed the Crimean peninsula after the coup in Ukraine and began supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, which is still ongoing.
According to the assessment of Western intelligence services, Russia wants to use the troop movements to force NATO concessions on controversial political and military issues. It looks as if Russia wants legally binding assurances that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO, said a senior intelligence representative shortly before a meeting of the G7 foreign ministers in Liverpool. In addition, Russia wants the alliance to refrain from permanently stationing troops and equipment in Ukraine, stop all military support for the country and no longer conduct any exercises in the vicinity of Russia.
Concessions from NATO
“Russia is trying to show that it is threatened and that it is reacting to Western behavior (…),” said the top official. The country only reacts to the problems that it creates itself. “It’s the arsonist trying to play the role of the firefighter,” he commented.
As a possible reason for the current course of the government in Moscow, the secret service representative named the fear that the developments in Ukraine could arouse unwanted desires in the Russian population. The threat is that Ukraine is a role model and could develop into an even more democratic state with free elections, a diversified economy and adherence to Western principles and values. This could be more dangerous than the power of military apparatus, he said.
On the question of whether Russia could invade Ukraine if the threatening backdrop does not bring the desired results, the secret service agent said that significantly more troops would probably be needed than those currently on the ground. At the same time, he stressed that Russia had the capabilities to mobilize the additional troops quickly. From his point of view, it is now important to act cautiously and to prepare for the fact that theoretically there could be a large-scale military operation at the end of January or beginning of February. One cannot afford the luxury of starting from the best possible scenario, he warned.
Until recently, it was considered very unlikely that the West would make major concessions in the conflict with Russia. For example, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg repeatedly emphasizes that it is not up to Russia to determine who will and who will not become a NATO member.
Closures in the Sea of Azov?
Meanwhile, Russia is said to have closed almost 70 percent of the Sea of Azov around the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea for military exercises. The Russian fleet is apparently planning target practice in front of the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol, Berdyansk and Henichesk, Kiev naval forces announced on Friday. A confirmation from the Russian side was initially not available.
The previous day, the Russian border guards accused a ship of the Ukrainian Navy of approaching the Kerch Strait without permission. The leadership in Moscow spoke of a dangerous provocation. Kiev rejected the charge. The ship “Donbass” did not leave its own territorial waters. The Sea of Azov is a common inland sea between Russia and Ukraine and is only connected to the greater Black Sea by the Kerch Strait.
In November 2018, three Ukrainian military ships were hijacked by the Russian border guards while attempting to cross this strait. The 24 sailors were only released after months of negotiations. The incident worsened relations between the two ex-Soviet republics. dpa
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