Several experts doubt the effectiveness of the European Union sanctions against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, whose capital escapes the European radar. These sanctions would bring them closer to other sanctioned states, including Russia. Some advocate the creation of a task force similar to the one that follows Russian oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin.
More than 200 people and 37 Iranian entities are now subject to restrictive measures imposed by the European Union. The Revolutionary Guard, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic of Iran, is especially in the crosshairs.
This is the eighth round of sanctions directed at the protagonists of the repression orchestrated in the country since the death, on September 16, of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died after being arrested by the morality police for “improperly carrying” her headscarf. These sanctions have intensified as the Iranian authorities continue to crack down on protesters, but most experts interviewed doubt their effectiveness.
The latest measures, adopted on May 22, add five names to the sanctioned list. Sirjan Prosecutor Moshen Nikvarz, Tehran Police Commander Salman Adinehvand and Secretary of Iran’s Supreme Council for Cyberspace Seyyed Mohammad Amin Aghamiri have all been singled out for their role in surveilling and detaining protesters or sentenced to death.
The IRGC Cooperative Foundation, the body responsible for investments within the Revolutionary Guard, has also been placed on the European blacklist, which has led to the freezing of the foundation’s assets in the EU and the ban of all funding.
In Iran, the Revolutionary Guard owns numerous companies, especially in the construction, transport infrastructure and airport sectors. Experts estimate that they control between 20% and 30% of the economy, but it is difficult to estimate this phenomenon due to its opacity, ensured by numerous branches and companies created at different levels, without traceability.
Funds that do not transit through Europe
Stéphane Dudoignon, a researcher at the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), has written a book on the Revolutionary Guard. Only 216 people have been punished from 120,000 to 190,000 members of the guardiansabout which little is actually known.
The European measures consist of an asset freeze, a travel ban within the EU and a ban on making funds or economic resources available to the people included on the list. But “there are so many ways to circumvent them that they are ineffective,” adds the Iran specialist.
“The Revolutionary Guard has assets abroad: funds invested through a pervasive system of corruption,” explains David Rigoulet-Roze, a research associate at Iris, citing Transparency International’s 2022 Global Corruption Index, which situates Iran ranked 147 out of 180 countries.
Corruption is denounced within the Iranian regime itself, and is used as a reason to remove top officials when they prove too disruptive or during clan wars. Such is the case of Ali Shamkhani, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, the country’s highest security body.
This Revolutionary Guard general was dismissed on May 22, accused in particular of corruption following allegations that his family had extorted millions of dollars from an oil shipping company that was helping Iran evade sanctions, which he denied.
However, the funds generated in this type of embezzlement rarely pass through Europe, but rather through Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, according to an investigation. published for ‘Paris Match’ in February. It reveals that these countries have recently been used as financial centers to receive funds from the conversion of merchandise smuggled out of the country by the Revolutionary Guard.
Since March 2022, the United Arab Emirates has been on the gray list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global observatory specialized in money laundering.
To be more effective, suggests Kasra Aarabi, head of the Iran program at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, a European and US task force should be set up to identify and sanction oligarchs and Iranian regime elites living in the West. Something similar to what has been done to track down and sanction Russian oligarchs loyal to Vladimir Putin since the invasion of Ukraine, in order to unravel financial deals, investigate nominees and shell companies owned by relatives of these sanctioned oligarchs. and sanction them.
“Solidarity among those sanctioned”
In addition, explains an academic who requested anonymity, the main investors in Iran today are the Russians, the Taliban, the Iraqi Shiite militias and China, and these countries do not fear European sanctions, as they are victims of them. “On the contrary, it fosters solidarity between the sanctioned countries,” argues this researcher.
In this way, the Guardians of the Revolution remain safe from European sanctions and the country reinforces its diplomatic alliances.
“If the goal is to sow discord within the Guardians, the effect is counterproductive,” continues this source. “The ‘Pasdaran’ see themselves as a citadel under siege, so when they punish you, you show your loyalty to the system.”
“On the contrary, there is a promotion of personalities who are targets of Western measures,” he stresses, referring to the case of Ebrahim Raissi. The current Iranian president, who in November 2019 entered the US blacklist for “complicity in serious human rights violations”, was elected head of state less than two years later.
Stéphane Dudoignon points out that the unity of the Guardians is stronger, since the new generation “owes everything to the Supreme Guide”, unlike the old Guardians, put in place by Ayatollah Khomeini and who had gained some popularity thanks to their military exploits. or to his economic successes at the head of large companies.
“We have already seen former officials asking the authorities to be more lenient. But today it would be more difficult for these new generations, more focused on Ali Khamenei,” he adds.
The Basij Student Organization
Kasra Aarabi points out, however, that this latest package of European sanctions has a novel aspect. It is directed against another group that has so far gone unpunished in Europe and is closely linked to the Revolutionary Guards: the Student Basij Organization (SBO).
This branch of the Basij organization is accused of carrying out a violent crackdown on college campuses. The Guardians oversee this university-based Islamist volunteer corps, which was deployed in response to protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini.
“Those who belong to it will no longer be able to travel, study or work in Europe. SBO members can be easily identified using various methods, including open source intelligence, as this organization maintains public websites with lists accessible in all Iranian universities,” says the British-Iranian researcher, author of an article dedicated to this group.
According to him, the members of the SBO will be especially affected by the European sanctions, because they travel and work in the old continent. “The Iranian state grants them special scholarships and grants for this, as a kind of privilege to keep them faithful,” he describes.
A legal basis for further prosecution
In the opinion of most of the experts interviewed, although it is unlikely that the successive sanctions imposed by the Europeans will bring down the regime or impoverish the Guardians, the main objective is to demonstrate that the EU maintains pressure on this organization, in particular ” to satisfy European public opinion”, marked by the repression of demonstrations in Iran.
French-Iranian lawyer Hirbod Dehghani-Azar, a member of the Iran Justice Collective, stressed the importance of making the names public. “The EU produces individual sanctions to please us. It is a patch, although it has some effectiveness because the sanctioned people will not be able to afford to walk around the world, it points the finger at them and makes them lose opportunities. Let’s not forget that they lose money by diverting the sanctions”, pointed.
The lawyer, who works with several colleagues in Iran and in the diaspora to gather evidence of abuses by the Islamic Republic’s security forces, is betting on the future. He believes that these sanctions will serve as a legal basis for prosecutions. “They provide a body of evidence that provides material for our action,” he noted.
Specifically, it is working for the Revolutionary Guard to be included in the list of terrorist organizations. The European Council has not responded to this request from the Iranian diaspora and MEPs.
This article was adapted from its original in French.
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