connecting academics and analysts; They spoke to Sky News Arabia; The success of Abi Ahmed’s new 5-year term; Its ability to manage all three files.
Abi Ahmed will seek to continue his strategy of focusing on the national dimension as an alternative to the strategy of ethnic federalism that prevailed until he assumed power in 2018.
But the real dilemma that he will face is the great structural, political and societal imbalance in the country, which is inseparable from the overall reality prevailing in most countries of the African continent.
In this context, Luca Biong says; Professor and Academic Dean at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington; Any efforts for the success of political practice in any of the countries of the African continent must be based on four important elements, including the optimal management of ethnic diversity, and turning it into a blessing rather than a cause of division and strife; In addition to consolidating the principles of institutional governance and rational leadership, and strengthening security frameworks based on professionalism that serve the state and not the ruling regime.
Biong asserts to Sky News Arabia that these four elements are what determine the chances of success or failure of any regime in Africa.
The crisis in the Tigray region, which has erupted since November 2020; In addition to other ethnic conflicts in various Ethiopian regions; Highlighting the magnitude of the challenge that Abu Ahmed could face in managing ethnic diversity in the coming years.
According to writer and researcher on African affairs, Abdel Moneim Abu Idris, Ethiopia has a long history of escalating civil conflicts.
Abu Idris told Sky News Arabia that the issue of managing diversity and resolving ethnic conflicts will occupy a large part of Abi Ahmed’s interests during the coming period because it constitutes a real local and regional dilemma due to the great tribal interaction between Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.
Live on the land of Ethiopia, which has a population of about 120 million people, more than 90 ethnic groups; The largest are the Oromo, the Amhara, Somalia and the Tigray.
regional dimension
The regional dimension is one of the important elements that are expected to top the files of Abi Ahmed’s new administration.
In addition to the thorny and fluctuating relationship with each of the two neighbors, Eritrea and Somalia; the worsening Renaissance Dam crisis with Sudan and Egypt, and the border crisis with Sudan; The war in the Tigray region produced great international and regional tension.
Ethiopian researcher Musa Shekho told Sky News Arabia that, in contrast to the broad regional and international support and welcome that Abi Ahmed gained after he came to power in 2018; which was crowned with the award of the Nobel Peace Prize; Things have completely changed with the start of his second term.
Sheikho explains, “there are major challenges represented in the Tigray region crisis and the associated regional and international interactions, in addition to the disputes of the Renaissance Dam with the downstream countries Sudan and Egypt, and the borders with Sudan.” Sheikho expects the Ethiopian government to adopt a dialogue strategy in dealing with the three files.
Moussa indicates that Abiy Ahmed will be keen to achieve Ethiopian interests, with a focus on enhancing stability in the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia’s neighboring countries. Moussa stresses that Abi Ahmed will rely on the broad popular mandate he obtained in the recent elections, which will strengthen his position in dealing with local and regional challenges.
Economic Challenge
Abi Ahmed will have the challenge of improving the economy, which was noticeably affected by the huge spending on the war in the Tigray region and the resulting losses estimated at about one billion dollars; According to the United Nations.
In fact, the Ethiopian economy before the war was one of the fastest growing in the world; Averaged 10 percent between 2010 and 2019, according to World Bank data. But the growth rate fell to 6.1 percent over the past two years.
The economic downturn negatively impacted inflation rates; The consumer price index recorded in July an increase of 25 percent; This is the highest monthly rise in decades.
The war also affected the business confidence index and the value of the national currency, which fell by 23 percent, as the dollar price is currently 46 birr, compared to 35 birr last October; Unemployment rates also rose to more than 17 percent.
But on the other hand; There are many cards of power that Abi Ahmed can use; Despite the internal war conditions and the global COVID-19 pandemic, foreign investment rose by $3.9 billion last year, according to what the Minister of Economy announced in September.
.