Environment – EU promises climate neutrality by 2050, but still falls short of 2030 plans

First modification: 02/15/2024 – 18:46

The plans that the countries of the European Union are designing to meet the climate goals set by the bloc “are not precise or complete enough.” This was determined by the most recent analysis of the European Climate Neutrality Observatory (ECNO), an independent body that analyzed the draft climate and energy plans of five countries: Italy, Hungary, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden.

The study shows that there is a gap between promises and actions. Since 2021, in the European Union came into force Climate Law with which they set the ambitious goal of being, by the year 2050, the first region in the world to achieve climate neutrality. This is what is scientifically called the equilibrium point at which the same amount of greenhouse gases is emitted as can be removed from the atmosphere; either because nature absorbs them or because there are mechanisms to capture and store these polluting gases.

To achieve this goal by mid-century, the same law speaks of reducing greenhouse gas emissions produced by the bloc's countries by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.

But today They are not on track to meet that goal, at least according to what the national drafts show.

The yellow line on the graph shows the actions that are theoretically required to achieve those promises. But since the national plans do not have enough details on how they will achieve them, the European Observatory calculated that, based on historical pollution trends, everything indicates that they will not reach the goal. The difference between those lines is what the study calls the transparency gap.

“If we want to achieve a 55% reduction in polluting gases, which is what the legislation establishes, we need better plans, more details as to what will happen in the countries regarding the four areas we study, more transparency and more coordination between countries to really understand how they will use those key energy sources,” Julien Pestiaux, lead author of the ECNO study, told France 24.

The advances and energy gaps of the European Union

The four areas the ECNO study looked at are renewable energy and hydrogen, land use, bioenergy and carbon dioxide storage.

The Observatory found that the national drafts have many details on how to implement renewable energy, but the same does not happen with hydrogen and there is not much data on where the European Union will import that resource from.

This is problematic because hydrogen is an element that is not usually found isolated in nature, but is obtained by breaking down other substances, such as water. And one option to have renewable hydrogen continues to be to extract it from gas, which is one of the most polluting fossil fuels.

“If we move quickly to hydrogen, but there is no green energy being produced in the country at sufficient levels, we will see natural gas converted to hydrogen and that has no use for the environment. That is the first inconsistency we found. “We are not seeing plans at the level of electricity and hydrogen production itself or whether countries will depend on imports,” Pestiaux said.

As for bioenergy, the report found that the draft plans have sufficient details on demand, but not on what the energy sources will be. And this lack of information can leave a void that leads to deforestation, since bioenergy is produced from organic waste and if it is not specified which, it could be obtained from felled trees.

“Biomass should only be used for bioenergy when it cannot be used as wood products, reused or recycled. This is an important concept to avoid over-reliance on wood and ensure sustainable wood procurement. Unfortunately, only the Netherlands specifically mentions this logic in your project,” warns the ECNO report.

Finally, regarding carbon dioxide capture, the report warns of a lack of details and also that countries have not clearly ruled out the use of these technologies either. “That is, in itself, a sign of low-quality planning,” the study states.

The capture and storage of CO2 is the main argument that fossil fuel industries such as oil companies are using, for example, to affirm that their production can be sustainable. These technologies aim to capture carbon dioxide before it pollutes the atmosphere, but they are not yet fully proven and have not been implemented on a large scale.

The EU sets new climate goal for 2040

All of these gaps are what ECNO found in the national drafts. Now, countries have until June of this year to present their energy and climate plans, which must also be on track with the new intermediate goal of the bloc of 27.

The European Commission set a goal to reduce the bloc's greenhouse gas emissions by 90% between now and 2040.that in order to achieve climate neutrality by mid-century.

But as Pestiaux warns, it is difficult especially if the first goal is not met, which will be in just six years.

“Our report does not look specifically at 2040, but if we lack clarity about implementation now for 2030, it is clear that any ambitious goal for 2040 will not be achieved because the guidelines to reach 2050 involve reducing 55% of 2030 and They require sufficient ambition. And we are now at the end of 2024 and our previous report, on alerts on progress, shows that there was a clear lack of speed in terms of implementation and this new one shows that the plans themselves are not sufficiently ambitious. detailed,” concludes the lead author of the report.