The head of the International Energy Agency warns that even though the energy crisis has subsided for the time being, next winter may be difficult for Europe.
Oil and gas prices in particular have clearly dropped from last year’s highs. However, Europe cannot breathe a sigh of relief, as the “energy war” with Russia is still ongoing, says the head of the International Energy Agency IEA Fatih Birol in the Financial Times.
The current winter has been milder than usual in Europe, which has partly reduced Europe’s energy consumption. Thus, Europe’s gas reserves have been sufficient much better than expected during the winter.
Russia cut off gas supplies to Germany last summer. Trade in oil and oil products has, on the other hand, slowed down as a result of the sanctions imposed by Europe on Russia.
The price of natural gas was at its highest over 300 euros per megawatt hour, while the price is now around 50 euros. The prices of crude oil, gasoline and diesel have also dropped from last summer’s highs.
Birol has warned Western countries several times before that the energy crisis could last for a considerable time.
While visiting Finland last fall he said Europe faces at least two difficult wintersbefore the energy crisis possibly begins to ease.
During his visit in October, Birol urged to prepare for the coming years.
“The coming winter will be difficult, but the next winter can be very difficult,” he said.
This winter’s gas storages in Europe have been filled with Russian gas, which until June was flowing normally to a large part of Europe. This year, gas storages may have to be filled completely without Russian gas.
In Birol’s opinion, Europe has survived the current winter well. However, he points out in an interview with FT that there may be a shortage of gas again, especially if the next winter is cold.
In addition, Birol points out in the interview that although Europe has survived the energy crisis so far, the prices of electricity and gas in Europe are still clearly higher than in the United States or China. He urges Europeans to continue working to save energy and develop renewable energy sources.
All those following the energy market do not share Birol’s view. For example, a Frenchman who has followed the energy market for several decades Pierre Andurand estimates in early February that the worst phase of the energy crisis is over. He manages the hedge fund he founded, specializing in the energy market.
“I believe that the [presidentti Vladimir] Putin lost the energy war,” Andrurand told the FT at the time.
He justified his view with, among other things, strongly depreciated natural gas.
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