Antonio Costa reconfirmed in Portugal: unexpected triumph of the outgoing premier that makes the Italian left dream
The European left has a new hero: Antonio Costa. The elections in Portugal they ended in a completely unpredictable way. Just when everyone expected the historic comeback of the right, or at least a narrow primacy of the left with a consequent total fragmentation of the parliamentary arc, the socialists of the outgoing prime minister (and at this point returning) Costa have scored a victory as fundamental as it is significant. The umpteenth sign of vitality of the European Social Democrats and progressives after the victory ofSpd in Germany last September cheered the center-left parties of half of Europe, eager to read Costa’s success through their national lenses. Including, of course, the Democratic Party of Enrico Letta.
And to say that all the signs suggested that the elections on Sunday 30 January would not have been so happy for the Portuguese socialists (we too had talked about it here). Particularly after the resounding rejection of the budget law of last October, which had led the President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to put an (early) end to the legislature that began exactly three years earlier. A story that caused a almost total split of the front of the Portuguese left, with the Bloco de Esquerda and the Portuguese Communist Partido who have decided to bury the government. On the other hand, Costa’s socialists did not want to make more compromises with the radical government partners.
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For this reason Costa’s victory becomes even more significant than by obtaining the absolute majority he has shown that he can win alone without the help of the forces considered extremist which he had instead had to rely on for a long time to form that strange political experiment of the “gerinconça”, namely one coalition-jumble which, however, had held out for some time. Too much, according to Costa, who chose to break after the guerrilla warfare started by the allies.
On the eve, the polls worried Costa, who seemed about to lose his bet. The center-right of Rui Rio he seemed to be in clear recovery, just behind the socialists. Among other things, the scenario seemed favorable to a hypothetical right-wing government, given that Rui Rio’s coalition with radical wings of Chega (far-right populist) and liberals appeared potentially more compact than the disrupted left. What worries Costa, in a country traditionally more left than right, is also the great rise of Chega’s populists.
But in the end Costa won his bet, despite the breaking up of a coalition that had now become uncomfortable. The socialists have arrived first in all circumscriptions, even in those of the north historically closer to the center-right. The photograph of the vote returns a very precise trend: the voters rewarded Costa, instead punishing the partners of the radical left.
Elections in Portugal, collapse of the Communist Party and the Bloco de Esquerda
The premier’s socialists have in fact obtained an absolute majority by conquering 117 seats out of 230 in Parliament against 108 won in the 2019 elections. Strong, among other things, of a turnout close to 60%, despite the eve of the polls foresaw a record abstention. Collapse of the Communist Party he was born in Bloco de Esquerda, both below 5%. A real debacle. Not surprisingly, all the right-wing parties are behind the socialists. THE social democrats right-wingers won 76 seats (3 fewer than in 2019), but Chega’s far right is growing rapidly, passing from 1 to 12 seats.
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Costa, who had defined this election as “the most important in the history of Portuguese politics“can cheer and think about how to invest the billions of the Next Generation of the European Union. An infrastructure plan and a business plan are already ready. Costa, on the other hand, has also been awarded for the good economic performance of his country in recent years, with a growth rate higher than that of other European countries.
Costa: “Absolute majority does not mean absolute power”
” Absolute majority does not mean absolute power. It does not mean ruling alone. It is a greater responsibility and it means governing with and for all Portuguese, ” Costa said in the victory speech. At the base of his success also the pragmatic approach to the pandemic, which led him to do not create social divisions between vaccinated and non vaccinated. A bit the opposite of what the Italian government has done. Everyone, including the sick, was guaranteed access to vote. An approach that took the populists’ breath away.
The various European center-left parties rejoice at Costa’s success. Including the Pd. “Bravo President Costa! A great result for Portugal and for Europe”, wrote the secretary on Twitter Enrico Letta. But several exponents of the Italian center left commented on seeing Costa’s victory as a sign of a general trend of success on the part of the European left after Scholz’s victory in Germany a few months ago. But in addition to the similarities, the differences must also be remembered.
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