Elections September 25 polls, “there is a 30% chance that everything will change between now and the vote”
The result of the elections of 25 September is not already written. And the victory of the Center-right is not taken for granted. To overturn all the predictions sensationally is the pollster Renato MannheimerEumetra partner, interviewed by Affaritaliani.it. “I have seen many elections during which the results were different from those of the polls. The game is not over also because, as Alessandra Ghisleri claims, there are still many undecided people who will decide who to vote only at the last moment. If the center-right does not make mistakes in the election campaign, they have a 70% chance of winning, but there is still a 30% chance that everything will change between now and 25 September“.
According to Mannheimer, the first party “will be Brothers of Italybut not by much and the Pd as a list it will do quite well. Even if Letta risks a notable defeat in the constituencies even worse than that of Renzi in 2018 “. League? Will it hold up or flex? “It depends on Salvini and on the electoral campaign he will do. Now he has launched the Flat Tax proposal at 15%, perhaps a little excessive. He should do a survey to understand what the priorities of the Italians are, but he has probably already done so”.
Come on Italy “is in trouble, it represents the liberal pole of the center-right and has its role. Some voters, but I don’t think too many, could go towards Calenda, even if it comes from the left. In addition, Berlusconi is a wizard of electoral campaigns and he will be able to invent something important this time too. Forza Italia will continue to play a role. “As for Renzi“it depends on whether he makes the deal with Action. Many pollsters, except Youtrend, estimate the center area to be around 10% if not more. There is a potential constituency.”
Finally the 5 Star Movement. “Here, too, the message they will convey in the electoral campaign must be evaluated, Conte is still strong enough in the South and remains popular in the polls, especially in the southern regions. He can aspire to 10%, even if in my opinion he will remain below this threshold”. And Comparison with Italexit? “He can make 3% and enter Parliament, it is not excluded”, concludes Mannheimer.
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