Sunday’s national elections, the largest in Mexico’s history due to its 20,000 positions at stake, left a bittersweet flavor for President Andres Manuel López Obrador. Your Brunette Party it was imposed in 10 of the 15 governorates in dispute, a clear advance from the current six it holds. But lost the qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies that it had until now, which will prevent it from making significant changes and the constitutional reforms that it intended, especially to regain state control of the energy sector.
However, according to the projections of the National Electoral Institute (INE), the ruling party will have a simple majority in the Lower House by adding the support of its allied parties, especially the Green Party, which quadrupled its seats. This means that by losing space, it will be forced to negotiate with the opposition if it seeks to make deeper reforms. The electoral body said yesterday that it would take several days to conclude the national scrutiny of the size of the election.
A painful scenario for the president is the Federal District, the seat of the country’s capital. There, his political formation suffered its worst debacle since 1997, where he only won 6 of 16 disputed mayoralties, which means that it lost 5 municipalities in the fiefdom of the Mexican left.
President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador did well in the gubernatorial elections. AFP photo
Specified in numbers, until now the ruling party had 253 legislators out of a total of 500 in Deputies. With the support of its allies, it guaranteed an absolute majority (two-thirds). Now, according to the provisional official count, out of 253 seats would be left with between 190 and 203. With its allies it could add between 265 and 298 seats, insufficient to have absolute control of the venue, which it sought to consolidate. In any case, with the contribution of its associates, it can guarantee a simple majority (half plus one).
Meanwhile, the main opposition parties that established alliances in various regional and local elections would increase their presence in Deputies. from 168 to 219 seats. The National Action (PAN), Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) and Democratic Revolution parties currently total 139 seats.
The result shows that an electoral maximum has been fulfilled since, since 1997, the midterm elections they have reduced or taken away the majorities to the ruling parties. López Obrador expires his term in 2024.
Winner but weakened
The president celebrated that his political coalition has retained the majority in the Chamber of Deputies, and control of key issues such as the national budget, despite having lost seats. “We will have a majority to guarantee the budget for the poor”Obrador said, alluding to his simple majority.
“I really appreciate because as a result of this election, the parties that are sympathetic to the transformation project that is underway will have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, ”said the president in his morning conference.
“It is a defeat for López Obrador, not overwhelming, but it does weaken him and his project because it requires constitutional reforms, “political scientist and historian José Antonio Crespo told AFP. The qualified majority is key in the president’s anti-neoliberal crusade, which aims to return control of the energy sector to the State, against the current of laws that opened the door to private companies in 2014.
The new Lower House, which is elected every three years, will take office on September 1. The Senate, also dominated by Morena, is renewed every six years.
The elections were held after the devastating effects of the pandemic and an escalation of violence that left 91 politicians assassinated, 36 of them candidates or pre-candidates, according to the consulting firm Etellekt. This violence is part of the bloodbath that the country has suffered since 2006, when the government of the time launched a military anti-drug operation.
Despite the fear prevailing in several localities, participation was high, adding about 52% of the Aztec electoral roll.
Source: AFP, EFE and AP