Elections in Germany: These will be the results according to the latest polls

Germany faces its most complicated elections this February 23, while uncertainty monopolizes the last weeks. And it is not for less after the first chancellor, Olaf Scholz, lost a motion of trust and dissolved the government coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the Liberal Party. While The German economy has registered its second consecutive recession year In 2024.

Europe looks carefully

Trump 2.0 entry and repercussions on the old continentas well as the growing weight of ultra -right forces in the continent have caused the leaders of the rest of Europe to look at these early elections with great attention. Especially for the interest in knowing what weight will end up having the ultra -rightist Alice Wiedel, leader of Alternative by Germany (AFD), and what coalition of government could be formed. And if citizens will punish the social democrats hard at the polls.

In the midst of this delicate situation, the mass demonstrations against the extreme right occur in the capital. The red lines that avoided their entrance fully In the first line of politics they have begun to blur. AND The polls indicate that the ultra -rightist AFD shortens distances with the first position. «With his cross, voters will answer a great question: Will the German Democratic Center continue to be strong? Will the center of our country also be linked to political competition? Or will Germany choose a path that moves away from the common dimension of the center? Of the sense and understanding?

What do the polls say?

Unanimity surveys agree to show how Clear winners to the conservatives of the CDU, with Friedrich Merz as party leader and candidate. From Ipsos, Yougov to GMS point out that the union of the conservatives of CDU and CSU would obtain more than 29, 5% of the votes, growing with respect to the 2021 elections when it obtained 24.2% of the ballots. However, surprises can always break into the last moment, and In second place are those of AFD with more than 20% of the votessupport in significant increase. They would double their result If we take into account that in the previous elections 10.4% of the votes were taken.

The Bundestag’s third force would be the SPDLet us remember that it is the party that won the 2021 elections, at that time they obtained 25.7% with a point and a half difference with the democristians. However, things have changed, and at present, forecasts point to 16%. They are then The Greenswith Robert Habeck he served as Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy. They fall from 14.7% in 2021 to 13.3% of the votes.

And the Last to achieve representation in the Bundestagaccording to the surveys, it is BSW, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (for reason and justice), founded in 2024 by former members of the German political party the left. He would get 5.1%, while his former partners would stay at 4.7%. Instead, FDP liberals would obtain 4%.

In addition, we would also see how, after the Olaf Scholz government promoted a new electoral law in 2023 to limit Parliament to a fixed number of 630 seats, matches like CSU and the left, which obtained dozens of seats in 2021now they could not become part of the Bundestag.

Possible coalitions

In these results they are also at stake The party pacts to govern. In that sense, the Social Democrats, green and liberal coalition, which ruled Germany until November, would not be the winning equation according to all polls.

The combination that seems to show more future to form a government without including AFD’s ultra -right A government pact between CDU and SDP. And a coalition between conservatives and green are less likely. However, the debates show headlines of the type: “Scholz and Merz put the first stone of the next great German coalition.”

How does the German electoral system work?

The correspondent in Germany of ABC, Rosalía Sánchez, already explained in previous elections that the system is complex- The ballots are divided into two parts. On the left is the box for the first vote, on the right the corresponding one, which is the really decisive. The first vote serves to choose a deputy for the electoral district. Germany is divided into 299 electoral districts, each of which sends a single representative to Parliament: the one who obtains most of the ballots.

He Second vote is for a political party that presents its candidates in closed lists In the 16 Länder. The candidates with more votes get direct seats, and the parties obtain seats based on the percentage of votes in a proportional cast. The seat assignment formula is the Sainte-Laguë rule, which favors the minority parties. And to opt for a seat in the second vote, the matches must get 5% of the second votes or the three seats of the direct vote of the 299 districts.