America has the opportunity to bury Bolivarianism in the presidential elections that will be held in 2025, in the event that the re-election of Daniel Noboa in Ecuador prevents the victory of the candidate of former president Rafael Correa and that in Bolivia the opponent Manfred Reyes Vila wins victory against a divided MAS. These are actually two very close disputes at the moment. For its part, in Chile there is the defeat of the leftist front that brought Gabriel Boric to power, while in Honduras Xiomara Castro has not ruled out violating the law to repeat her candidacy. In addition to presidential elections in these four countries, in 2025 there will be parliamentary elections in Argentina, where Javier Milei, no matter what happens, will increase his congressmen. These mid-term elections, which will take place in October, will allow Milei to improve the minimum direct support he has in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, since the previous election coincided with the first round of the presidential elections, in which the radical candidate had come in second place.Related News standard If Milei enables 18-year-olds to carry firearms Guadalupe Piñeiro Michel The measure generated even more controversy in the Andean country since it was taken by decree, without passing before by the national CongressEcuadorThe first electoral appointment will be on February 9 in Ecuador. Things are going wrong for President Daniel Noboa, who was elected to fill the two years remaining in the mandate of the resigned Guillermo Lasso. The continuous power outages that the country is suffering have damaged the image of a decisive president that Noboa, a center-right businessman, had achieved with his “iron fist” reaction to the increase in violence derived from drug trafficking. Trying to recapture that image, Noboa has tried to focus the electoral debate on security, an issue in which he is most comfortable since he has managed to reduce the number of homicides; However, episodes such as the recent disappearance of four children at the hands of the military are hindering their chances. The institutional fight with his vice president, Verónica Abad, does not help him either. Latest polls suggest an advance for the Correista candidate Luisa González, whom Noboa won in the second round in 2023. If González became president, the return to Ecuador of Rafael Correa could be activated, who as president between 2007 and 2017 aligned the country with the Bolivarianism of Hugo Chávez. If he fails, Correa would lose hope of restitution.BoliviaThe next presidential elections will take place in Bolivia, on August 17. The dispute between the country’s president, Luis Arce, and his former mentor, former president Evo Morales, will determine the outcome. The ruling Movement towards Socialism (MAS) is experiencing a fratricidal duel to the death and will probably suffer a division of the vote. Morales has been disqualified from running again for elections, as he was already president for 19 years, thereby contravening his own Constitution, but the former president continues to force the situation to be a candidate and keep the acronym. The polls put Morales clearly ahead of Arce, and the division between the two (or the boycott of his followers if he is not a candidate) would facilitate the victory of the current mayor of Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Vila, a right-wing businessman and former military man. A victory for this and the transition of the MAS to the opposition would mean the end of Bolivia as a great bastion of Bolivarianism (Venezuela no longer leads it politically, as it is a dictatorship). ChileThe general elections in Chile will be on November 16. They will take place when the country has been correcting for some time the excess of inclination towards the left that brought Gabriel Boric to power, for whom consecutive re-election is constitutionally not possible. Polls place Evelyn Matthei, mayor of Providencia, in greater Santiago, and candidate of the Independent Democratic Union, a traditional right-wing party, in first place. He is followed by José Antonio Kast, leader of the Republican Party, a more radical right, and Michelle Bachelet, who intends to lead a moderate left coalition and return to La Moneda for the third time. The final result will depend a lot on who will go to the second round: an election between Matthei and Kast could benefit the first, but if the option is between Bachelet and one of the other two, the useful anti-conservative vote could favor the former president. In any case, Bachelet’s candidacy shows a lack of renewal in the leadership of that electoral sector.HondurasIn the case of Honduras, the general elections will be on November 30. The current leftist president, Xiomara Castro, has not categorically ruled out trying to repeat her candidacy, despite the fact that the Constitution prohibits it and that she herself criticized that her predecessor, Juan Orlando Hernández, forced her re-election. Another possibility is that the person attempting re-election is her husband, Manuel Zelaya, who could claim that right after not having been able to complete the mandate for which he was elected in 2005. For now, their party, Libre, has begun the trial. of new candidates. Salvador Nasralla, vice president of the country but removed from his duties due to his differences with Castro, is running for the Liberal Party. Investigations into drug trafficking in the family environment of the president and her husband could condition a decision on the presidential candidacy, which, if successful, would guarantee another four years of immunity. The departure of power from Castro and Zelaya, who as president was an ally of Chávez, would leave Bolivarianism without a sympathetic government in Central America (Nicaragua, another dictatorship, does not count here either).
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