The presidential election is only on October 2, but the electoral scenario, according to polls, shows a very strong polarization between former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and current president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and great difficulty for a third way candidate to break the 10%.
A survey commissioned by the website Poder 360 released last Wednesday (2) shows that Lula has 41% of voting intentions in the first round, while Bolsonaro has 30%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Sergio Moro (Podemos) each have 7%. The governor of São Paulo João Doria (PSDB) has 2% of the intentions.
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Political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida analyzes polls published since March last year and saw an important change in PT’s voting intention since Supreme Federal Court (STF) Minister Edson Fachin made him eligible again, nullifying the evidence from Operation Lava. Jet against the former president.
For him, with Lula in the running, it is very difficult for the other candidates to be able to position themselves as viable opposition names to Bolsonaro.
“In March 2021, the sum of the other candidates was 40% and what changed was the name of the person who receives the opposition vote: before it was the other candidates who occupied this band, now those votes went to Lula”, he said.
Research does not worry the market
One sector that has always been very reticent to Lula’s candidacy is the financial market. During the Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro governments, a series of reforms such as labor and social security were designed and approved by more liberal governments in the economy.
There is a fear that a possible third Lula government will make Brazil back down in certain aspects. It is worth remembering the 2002 election that, even after the nod to the market with the Letter to Brazilians, there was the so-called “Lula risk”, which made the dollar rise with each published survey.
The chief economist of Banco Master, Paulo Gala, however, observes that the eight years of Lula’s government made the market calmer 20 years later and that the PT’s moves to the center, such as the possible choice of Geraldo Alckmin as deputy , can collaborate.
“If we look at what is actually happening, with Lula far ahead, it’s because this doesn’t worry the market. The scenario is quite different from what it was in 2002,” he explains.
One point that may serve to calm market sentiments in the election year is the approval of the autonomy of the Central Bank, which was approved in February last year and which will prevent the president who takes over in 2023 from making a generalized change of command of the Central Bank. institution.
The economist also points out that, in fact, there is a difference of thought between the economic teams of Lula and Bolsonaro in the sense of labor reform, but he does not believe in a complete review of it if the PT wins the elections.
“I don’t see the discussion in the PT being done in a dogmatic way. It is not a question of going back on the debate and turning the Uber driver into an employee with an employment relationship. There is a possibility that reform will be discussed, but not that everything will go back to what it was before,” he explained.
Agreement on the tax issue
A concern that should permeate the economic debates this year is fiscal responsibility. Created to freeze real government spending for the next few years, the spending cap was eventually approved during the Michel Temer government as the country’s lifeline.
It turns out that with the pandemic and the economic worsening, even the most liberal cadres, such as the Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes, are already in agreement that the mechanism will have to be modified by the next president.
Gala points out that the teams of Lula, Bolsonaro, Moro and Ciro Gomes are aligned with the end of the mechanism, but that they all show a concern in the fiscal area.
Scenario for Bolsonaro is not good
President Jair Bolsonaro has been unable to leave the 30% range of voting intentions in the first round for several polls. If the number is enough to leave him in the second round, it is not to beat Lula in the second.
For Almeida, Bolsonaro will have to work so that his rejection rate drops and he will only achieve this if the economy improves. According to the latest survey by Poder 360, 53% of respondents disapprove of his management.
According to Gala, there is no room for a big improvement in the economy that guarantees a possible breath for the reelection of the president, and even the R$90.6 billion from Auxílio Brasil will not be enough for that.
“We had two very bad years and the government ends up paying that bill. There is an expectation of improvement for this year, but the GDP will grow 0%. With inflation hitting 5% and unemployment still in the 12% range, these are very bad numbers. The aid helps in some way, but what will happen in this first semester in the economy is already given”, he concluded.
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