How the elections on 25 September will end
On the last useful day to talk about polls, we can try to develop a forecast, albeit very indicative, of the possible electoral result, just over two weeks before the vote.
Analyzing the set of surveys published from the end of June to today (ie about forty researches), what picture emerges?
What we can do is give a percentage fork for the main parties in the running, with a minimum and a maximum value). The resulting situation is the following:
Brothers of Italy from 22 to 26 percent
It binds between 10 and 15 percent
Forza Italia between 6 and 9 percent
We moderated around 1 percent
Center-right as a whole between 42 and 48 percent
Pd from 20 to 23 percent
YES + Greens between 3 and 4 percent
+ Europe around 2 percent
Civic commitment around 1 percent
Center-left as a whole from 26 to 30 percent
Action + Italia Viva from 6 to 9 percent
Five Star Movement from 12 to 16 percent
Italexit around 3 percent.
Taking into account that the undecided are still a good 25 percent, the last days of the electoral campaign will be decisive in determining the true final percentages. The affirmation of the center-right and the exploit of FdI appear very likely. Instead, there is more uncertainty about a double duel: that between Lega and M5S for third place (close to FdI and Pd), and that for fourth between Forza Italia and Action + Italia Viva.
* political scientist and pollster
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