On the edge of the ban on the dissemination of polls, which starts this Saturday, Clarion analyzed the three scenarios that attract the most attention from public opinion in the face of STEP 2021: the electoral bid to Nacional level, on the Province and in the Buenos aires city. In the first two cases, with such a dispersion of numbers that one can speak of a open result (and uncertain). On Buenos Aires territory, on the other hand, the specialists agree: a Wide Advantage of Together for Change about him Front of All.
The national fight: 7 polls
While the midterm legislative elections are actually 24 separate district elections, as is often the case, on September 12 at night there will be a reading of the national result. Especially under the prism of the crack. Will the Frente de Todos win again? How much? Or will Together for Change surprise, after the strong blow it received less than two years ago?
That last antecedent, in October 2019, showed a strong polarization – the two main alliances concentrated close to 90 points – and a considerable advantage for Kirchnerism, although not as great as the one it had achieved a few months earlier in the primaries. The final scrutiny issued by the Electoral Justice marked 48.24% for Frente de Todos and 40.28% for Together for Change.
In the midst of the dispersion of national numbers, in general the surveys speak of more limited differences (for one side or the other) and in lower figures. Although everything will depend on the presentism in the middle of the pandemic and the projection of undecided.
Of the seven national surveys that he was able to analyze Clarion this year in august, four see today an advantage for the Front of All: some of those consultants, such as Ricardo Rouvier or the Celag, are closer to Kirchnerism and their works tend to circulate in these political areas:
1) Ricardo Rouvier: 36.7% FdT vs. 29.5% JxC, with 12.2% undecided.
2) Celag (who projected undecided): 43.3% FdT vs. 38.1% JxC.
3) Oh panel: 34% FdT vs. 29% JxC, with 22% undecided.
4) National University of La Matanza: 34.1% FdT vs. 30.5% JxC, with 11.2% undecided.
On the other hand, three other firms show the main opposition alliance at the top at the national level. They were Opinion (whose client is the City Government), the University of San Andrés (Udesa) and Synopsis. With these numbers:
1) Opinion: 27% JxC vs. 21% FdT, with 20% undecided.
2) Synopsis: 31.9% JxC vs. 27.5% FdT, with 10.4% undecided.
3) Udessa: 23% JxC vs. 21% FdT, with 25% undecided.
When the 7 studies are averaged, the differences are compensated and the Frente de Todos is just above 31 points and Together for Change is close to 30.
Two possible advantages for the ruling party are linked to the presenteeism and the undecided. In the first case, it is presumed that a high absenteeism will weigh even more the apparatus that Peronism usually deploys and that is particularly felt in the primaries; And as for the undecided, today they would include many K voters of 2019, disenchanted with the management of Alberto Fernández but who hardly go over to the opposition. Speculations that will only dissipate on voting day.
The Buenos Aires fight: 12 polls
The bid in the Buenos Aires province unleashed the main poll war voting intention. Logical: 37% of the national electorate is concentrated there and 35 of the 127 seats of deputies are renewed.
Clarion accessed a dozen surveys that were released in the last two weeks. With a dispersion similar to what they have been showing almost since the lists were closed. And even before.
A coincidence is that Nobody predicts today a victory for the Frente de Todos similar to the one the Fernández achieved (in the section for president) nor Axel Kicillof (for governor) in 2019, with advantages in the Buenos Aires general of 16.31 and 12.71 points respectively over Juntos por el Cambio.
Of the 12 polls who could see this diary, four they locate the officialism up, but with more limited margins than those of 2019. In this case, Together for Change would have an advantage: it has two lists, against the only one from the Frente de Todos, headed by Victoria Tolosa Paz.
1) Raúl Aragon: 30.7% FdT vs. 27.8% JxC (19.49% Diego Santilli + 10.31% Facundo Manes), with 9.5% undecided.
2) Circuits: 33.7% FdT vs. 28.2% JxC with Santilli and 33.1% vs. 23.6% JxC with Manes, with 9.2% and 7.8% undecided respectively.
3) Cleavages: 39.1% FdT vs. 34.1% JxC (27.6% Santilli + 6.5% Manes), with 8.6% undecided.
4) Projection: 39.7% FdT vs. 35.1% JxC (Santilli 21.4% + 13.7% Manes), with projected undecided.
On the other side of the crevasse, three polls located the sum of ballots of Together for Change ahead:
1) Electoral Observatory: 44% JxC (26% Santilli + 18% Manes) vs. 35% FdT, with 7% undecided.
2) Opinion: 29% JxC (18% Santilli + 11% Manes) vs. 16% FdT, with 22% undecided.
3) Jorge Giacobbe: 33.6% JxC (25.4% Santilli + 8.2% Manes) vs. 27.1% FdT, with 15.3% undecided.
The most curious case is that of Opinion. When projecting the undecided, Tolosa Paz’s list comes to the fore, 37% to 34%. As explained in the consultancy, this happens because the candidate is still very unknown, but the weight of the FdT seal will make her grow.
And as if to add uncertainty, five of the latest Buenos Aires polls suggest a technical draw:
1) Trespuntozero: 32.4% FdT vs. 33.2% JxC (23.4% Santilli + 9.8% Manes), with 10.5% undecided.
2) CB Public Opinion Consultant: 32.1% FdT vs. 33.1% JxC (18.9% Santilli + 13.2% Manes), with 9.5% undecided.
3) CIGP: 33.3% FdT vs. 32.9% JxC (23.2% Santilli + 9.7% Manes), with 6.9% undecided.
4) Federico Gonzalez: 31.2% FdT vs. 32.2% JxC (19.6% Santilli + 10.6% Manes), with 9.7% undecided.
5) Trends: 33.4% FdT vs. 34.3% JxC (24.1% Santilli + 10.2% Manes), with 10.2% undecided.
In the 12 surveys there is unanimity in the advantage that Santilli would take over Manes in the Buenos Aires internship of Together for Change.
Regarding the rest of the candidates, although there is also a great diversity of figures, neither Randazzo nor Espert usually reach double digits. Without projecting undecided, both are averaging about 6 points, with the former minister barely better. The other one who would have no problem passing the floor of 1.5% of the votes that enables candidates to compete on November 14 is Nicolás del Caño, from the Left Front.
The Buenos Aires fight: 9 polls
The scenario in CABA seems a little more predictable. Or at least there is a greater coincidence in the forecasts. In the last two weeks, Clarion accessed surveys from nine consulting firms: Giacobbe, Electoral Observatory, CB, CIGP, Opinaia, Cleavages, Projection and Federico González.
What do they agree on? In which the sum of Together for Change, still undecided, exceeds 40 points and takes you wide advantage to the only ballot of the FdT, which Leandro Santoro leads and averages about 24 points.
They also agree that inside the yellow internal, María Eugenia Vidal approaches 30 points and more than doubles the second, Ricardo López Murphy. Although the economist averages interesting two digits of vote intention, with marginal figures of the third of that STEP, the radical Adolfo Rubinstein.
AND as a surprise of the Buenos Aires primaries, the also economist Javier Milei, from La Libertad Avanza, is heading. That not only would he already be getting the approximate 7 points in the STEP to get one of the 13 Buenos Aires benches in November, but also figure around the double digits.