Within a generalized blunder of the pollsters, there were two firms that were somewhat closer in their forecasts in the 2019 presidential elections. Gustavo Córdoba in the PASO and Trespuntozero overall. With this background, this last consulting firm has just published a survey on the fight in the province of Buenos Aires, the most attractive of the primaries on September 12. With open result: when asked by space the Front of Allbut when he did per candidate the sum of the two lists of Together for Change.
The study that advances Clarion this Wednesday included a survey of 1,300 cases, between August 27 and 31. The results were presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%. Like most jobs, this survey by the consulting firm led by the analyst Shila vilker starts with current data:
Alberto Fernández, this Tuesday at Tecnópolis. The image of his management in the Province is bad.
– 56.2% of Buenos Aires residents evaluate Alberto Fernández’s management as “bad” or “very bad”.
– 53.9% think the same of the administration of Axel Kicillof.
And right away, before going into the specific numbers of the election, the poll asks a general electoral question. Do people want change or continuity?
– The “cambismo” prevails with 47.9%. Of that total, 42.2% want “the national government of Alberto Fernández to change”, while 5.7% ask “for the government to change but maintain some progress.”
– While the “continuity” adds 43.9%, with 22.6% that aspires to “continue the national government of Alberto Fernández” and 21.3% who prefer “that the government continue but with improvements in management” .
These opposite variables have been relatively stable since May.
The numbers by space, with the FdT above
As the first parameter, Trespuntozero analyze the electoral floors and ceilings of four main forces. Question: “How likely would you vote for one of these lists?”. With this result:
1) Together for Change by Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, Mauricio Macri and María Eugenia Vidal: “I will surely vote for her” 19.2%, “I could vote for her” 24.6% (43.8% total probable vote), “I would never vote for her” 49.5% and “Don’t know” 6.7%.
Victoria Tolosa Paz, the official candidate in the Province. It is favored by the seal of the Frente de Todos.
2) Front of All by Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa: “I will surely vote for her” 32.1%, “I could get to vote for her” 9.8% (41.9% total probable vote), “I would never vote for her” 52.7% and “Don’t know” 5.4%.
3) Advance Freedom by Javier Milei and José Luis Espert: “I will surely vote for her” 9.3%, “I could vote for her” 24.1% (33.4% total probable vote), “I would never vote for her” 50.2% and “Don’t know” 16.4%.
4) Let’s go with you from Florencio Randazzo: “I will surely vote for her” 2.4%, “I could vote for her” 16.5% (18.9% total probable vote), “I would never vote for her” 64.6% and “Don’t know” 16.5%.
Buenos Aires survey of Trespuntozero. Voting intention by space.
Then the study advances in the intention to vote by space, facing the STEP. And as other polls have shown, there the seal of the Frente de Todos is strong, which takes almost nine points to Juntos por el Cambio.
1) Frente de Todos by Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kicillof 36.8%.
2) Together with Mauricio Macri, María Eugenia Vidal and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta 27.9%.
3) The freedom of José Luis Espert and Javier Milei advances 8.9%.
4) Let’s go with Vos de Florencio Randazzo 5.5%.
5) Left Front of Nicolas del Caño 2%.
6) New Citizen Union of Juan José Gomez Centurión 1.2%.
– Others 2.8%.
– None 5.2%.
– Don’t know 9.7%.
Voting intention per candidate
At the end of the work, the most realistic scenario of the primaries is proposed, with the main options and their respective candidates. Also with open result. Although the ruling party Victoria Tolosa Paz is the most chosen (32.4%), when the two offers from JxC are added (Diego Santilli –23.4%– and Facundo Manes –9.8%-) the main opposition alliance passes forward by 8 tenths (33.2% to 32.4%). Technical tie. They complete:
Buenos Aires survey of Trespuntozero. Voting intention per candidate.
3) Jose Luis Espert by Avanza Libertad 7.2%.
4) Florencio Randazzo by Vamos con Vos 3.9%.
5) Nicolas del Caño for the Left Front and the workers 2.2%.
6) Juan Jose Gómez Centurion by New Citizen Union 1.2%.
7) Cynthia hotton by + Values 1%.
– Others 2.1%.
– 6.3% blank.
– Don’t know 10.5%.
Facundo Manes and Diego Santilli, the pair for the internship of Together for the Change in Province.
When blank and undecided votes are projected, all percentages grow and the difference between Together for Change and the Front of All stretches to almost two points: 40.8% between Santilli (28.9%) and Manes ( 11.9%), against 38.9% of Tolosa Paz.
The rest? Espert rose to 8.1%, Randazzo to 4.4%, Del Caño to 2.8%, Gómez Centurión to 1.7%, Hotton to 1.1% and others to 2.2%.
The latest antecedent and the other surveys
This presumably even scenario is bad news for the Frente de Todos. Especially taking the last Buenos Aires parameter: In the general of 2019 in the Province, the Fernández won by 16.31 points and Kicillof, by 12.71.
Anyway, in the ruling party they remember other antecedents, which could play in their favor: Kirchnerism comes from losing the last three Buenos Aires intermediate legislatures: in 2009 against Francisco de Narváez, in 2013 against Sergio Massa and in 2017 against Esteban Bullrich. That is why, as Clarín said, they are trying to install the idea that “winning by one vote is winning.”
Axel Kicillof and Veronica Magario, the other day after winning the governorship, on October 28, 2019.
On the other hand, in Together for Change they remember that they lost the last election by about a million votes in the Province and that reducing that by half would already be an achievement. Then, Could it be that the two end up celebrating a limited triumph of the ruling party? Could…
Regarding the other Province surveys known this month, showed a very large dispersion. Half predicts the triumph of one, half of the other; and there is not even homogeneity in the performances of the smallest forces, such as those of Randazzo, Espert and Del Caño.