Without the political glow generated by the lights of (the two) Buenos Aires, there are a couple of provinces whose result will also be key in the elections 2021: Cordoba and Santa Fe. They earned a place by their own weight, since years ago they surpassed CABA and became the second and third districts with the most voters in the country. But also, for this year’s legislative They come with a plus: both will renew senators. And how does the fight come there? Clarion He accessed three polls that anticipate even disputes, especially in internal ones.
On the one hand, D’Alessio IROL – Berensztein measured what are known as electoral floors and ceilings of the main candidates in Cordova. They are two firms that have worked together for several years and published the electoral potential in the main districts days ago. This newspaper already anticipated the data of the City and Province of Buenos Aires.
On the other hand, the consulting firms of Federico Gonzalez Y Raúl Aragon disseminated studies of voting intention in Santa Fe. The two analysts worked at the time for the candidacy of Sergio Massa and other applicants of the PJ. Now both polls were approached by the team of Agustin Rossi.
However, González assured that he does not work for the displaced Defense Minister and that the study “was commissioned by a businessman from the province.” Aragon pointed out the same: “In my case, three businessmen from agriculture, also from the province, asked for it.”
The fight in Córdoba
It is the second province with the most voters of the country: almost 3 million enabled, which in 2019 represented the 8.71% of the total.
In this year’s legislative elections, Córdoba will renew the three seats in the Senate: two that are in the hands of Together for Change and one of the Frente de Todos. Nine national deputies will also be put into play: five from Together for Change, three from Córdoba Federal (the bloc that responds to Governor Juan Schiaretti) and one from the Frente de Todos.
The polls have shown Together for Change at the top in the total sum and a dispute for second place (key to the bench by the Senate minority) between We do for Córdoba (the local seal of the Peronist Schiaretti) and the Frente de Todos, in general with Kirchnerism third.
Luis Juez and Mario Negri were allies in the provincial election of Córdoba in 2019. Now they go to the internal of JxC for the Senate.
The survey of D’Alessio and Berensztein measure the electoral potential of seven pre-candidates. With four central variables: how many people “surely” would vote for them (floor), how many “probably” would vote (added to the above, they make up the ceiling), how many “probably not” and how many “surely not” (rejection).
First were three leaders who will participate in the PASO de JxC: Mario Negri, the radical who currently leads the interblock of Deputies but will fight for the Senate; Rodrigo de Loredo, rival in the provincial UCR of Negri and who will lead another ballot for Deputies; Y Luis Judge, De Loredo’s ballot mate and Negri’s direct contender for the upper house.
Senator Carlos Caserio, on his bench. He got her allied with Schiaretti and then went to the Frente de Todos.
– Negri combines 32% of “would surely vote for it”, plus 23% of “would probably vote for it”; with 15% of “probably would not vote”, plus 27% of “surely would not vote”.
– From Loredo: 20% of “would surely vote for it”, plus 33% of “would probably vote for it”; with 15% of “probably would not vote”, plus 23% of “surely would not vote”.
– Judge: 22% of “would surely vote for it”, plus 27% of “would probably vote for it”; with 18% of “probably would not vote”, plus 30% of “surely would not vote”.
Then comes Martin Gill, who will be head of the list for Deputies in the Front of All list. Y below Carlos Caserio, the candidate for senator on the same sheet. Fact: Caserio had obtained his seat in 2015 allied to Schiaretti, but then he left the governor and became a faithful soldier of Alberto Fernández.
– Gill combines 12% of “would surely vote for it”, plus 12% of “would probably vote for it”; with 19% of “probably would not vote”, plus 44% of “surely would not vote”.
– Hamlet: 10% of “would surely vote for it”, plus 12% of “would probably vote for it”; with 20% of “probably would not vote”, plus 54% of “surely would not vote”.
Governor Juan Schiaretti and his wife, Alejandra Vigo, who will now fight for a seat in the Senate.
And a step slightly lower the two main candidates of We do for Córdoba. Natalia de la Sota, daughter of the former governor and head for Deputies; Y Alejandra Vigo, current deputy and wife of Schiaretti, leading the Senate.
– De la Sota combines 8% of “would surely vote for it”, plus 13% of “would probably vote for it”; with 27% of “probably would not vote”, plus 49% of “surely would not vote”.
– Vigo: 6% of “would surely vote for it”, plus 14% of “would probably vote for it”; with 26% of “probably would not vote”, plus 49% of “surely would not vote”.
In all cases, they complete the “does not know / does not answer”.
The fight in Santa Fe
With some 2.8 million eligible voters, the 8.18% of the total in 2019, is the third district with the most electoral weight from the country. He also renews three key seats in the Senate: two from the Front of All and one ally to Together for Change (the one obtained by the late Carlos Reutemann in 2015).
In addition, they are put into play nine seats of Deputies: five from Together for Change, three from the Front of All and one from the Progressive Front. One of the most interesting aspects of the Santa Fe election is that the three main forces go to internal.
Omar Perotti and Agustín Rossi, weeks ago. They face off inside the Frente de Todos in Santa Fe.
Thus, the reading of the numbers can be done in the summation by force and in the PASS of each alliance. In the first case, the two studies, although they came to this newspaper from the Frente de Todos, put Together for Change at the top.
Federico González’s poll gives a total of 34.9 points to the four JxC lists, 32.8 to the two of the FdT and 19.6 to the two of the Progressive Front. The one in Aragon, meanwhile, gives it 34%, 31,% and 20.9% respectively.
When the internal ones are crumbled, there are also coincidences. Both show a advantage of the list of Agustín Rossi and Alejandra Rodenas (the vice-governor, who allied herself with the displaced minister) on which she responds to the governor Omar Perotti and is supported by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner.
Gonzalez grants you a voting intention of 19.7% to Rossi-Rodenas versus 13.1% to Marcelo Lewandoski and Rubén Mirabella. Aragon locates them with 17.8% and 13.7% respectively.
Refering to internal situation of Together for Change, the two polls present a very even internal scenario, with Carolina Losada and Mario Barletta first (9.8% for Aragón and 10.1% for González), Federico Angelini and Amalia Granata seconds (8.4% and 8.9%), José Corral and Rodrigo López Molina third parties (8.1% and 8.5%) and Maximiliano Pullaro and Gabriel Chumpitaz fourths (7.7% and 7.4%).
Amalia Granata and Federico Angelini, candidates for senators for Santa Fe within Together for Change.
Finally, in the Progressive Front dispute, to Aragon Clara García de Lifschitz and Mónica Fein add up to 11.8% against 9.1% of Rubén Giustiniani and Fabio Oliver; and to Gonzalez, the same list also prevails, but 11.3% to 8.3%.
How the two Santa Fe polls came to Clarion Through Rossi’s team, this newspaper asked the other campaign spaces if they had their own polls and they answered that “for the moment no.”