In the middle of a general blunder, Gustavo Córdoba was the consultant who best predicted the PASO 2019, according to a survey that then made Clarion. He predicted a gap of about 10 points in favor of the Frente de Todos, which ended up winning by just over 15. The rest of the pollsters oscillated between 3 and 4 points, always with the Fernández duo at the top. With that antecedent, the question falls by itself: what does that analyst say now in the face of the 2021 elections? According to him Last national poll carried out in tandem with the Zuban firm, Juntos por el Cambio has a slight advantage and Peronism no K is third.
The work that advances Clarion this Wednesday included a survey of 3,000 cases nationwide, surveyed between July 9 and 11. The results are presented with a margin of error of +/- 1.79%.
Before entering the electoral chapter, the study sheds current data, which anticipates a complicated scenario for the ruling party. Some examples?
– 56.4% disapprove of the management of the national government against 42.6% who approve it. It is the worst combination of the series, which began when Alberto Fernández took office, and reached a record peak of + 97% and -2.2% in March 2020.
Opposition march in the Buenos Aires Obelisk, on July 9. Photo: Fernando de la Orden.
– 58.9% believe that Argentina is going “in the wrong direction” against 35.2% who think otherwise. In favor of the ruling party, this last parameter rose more than 6 points compared to June.
– 29.8% believe that the main problem that affects them is inflation, followed by 16.8% with unemployment. The pandemic / vaccines, which the Government puts as the axis of the campaign, recently ranked fourth with 11.7%.
– Alberto Fernández’s image is stabilized at 43 positive points and 56 negative points. Barely better than Mauricio Macri, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa, and clearly worse than Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
The electoral fight, with three parameters
The electoral chapter, Zuban Cordoba He approaches it in three ways: with a binary measurement (ruling party / opposition) and with two more precise ones, by space.
In the first case, the consultant asks: Will you vote for candidates who support or are opponents of the national government?
The ruling party gets a relatively interesting number there, 37%. Although it is less than 51% of the opponents, it is a high base to think about a national victory. For the legislative, it usually reaches with about 40 points or even less to prevail.
But when the question is more specific and the variants are offered by space, the Frente de Todos is second, with 28.1%, against 33.3% of Juntos por el Cambio.
Third appears the non-Kirchnerist Peronism of “Randazzo, Urtubey and Lavagna”, with 7.8%; fourth, the Liberals with 3.5% and fifth the left, with 2.5%. They complete “others” (6.8%) and 18% undecided.
And finally, the firm makes a projection of undecided. He asks them if beyond the fact that they have not yet made the decision, “they are closer” to voting for a particular candidate.
There, Together for Change is stuck at 33.3% and the Frente de Todos rises a couple of points and rises to 30.2%. The PJ no K remains almost the same (8%), and the left rises to fourth place (5.4%), relegating the liberals to fifth (4.3%).
The table is completed with 9.6% of “others” and 9.2% who, despite the cross-examination, remain in the “does not know / does not answer”.