This Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the start of the El Niño climate phenomenon. With the beginning of this phenomenon, the result of the increase in temperatures in the Pacific waters, the consequences throughout the world will be different: from cyclones and electrical storms to intense rains or, on the contrary, droughts.
First modification:
It’s official, the El Niño phenomenon is back in the Pacific. This was announced this Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), along with the warning that it is very likely to cause extreme weather phenomena, such as heavy rains or tropical cyclones.
The Nile occurs every 2 to 7 years on average and its main action is the heating of the surface of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. It alternates with the La Niña weather pattern, which does just the opposite: slightly lower global temperatures. Now, after three years of La Niña, El Niño is back.
This phenomenon forms when the trade winds that blow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific slow or reverse as atmospheric pressure changes, although scientists don’t know exactly what triggers the cycle.
“Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a variety of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and drought in some parts of the world (…) And also increasing global temperatures,” said Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA climatologist. .
The accumulation of warm water in the eastern Pacific transfers heat to the atmosphere through convection and generates another of its effects: electrical storms.
“When El Niño moves that warm water, it moves to where the storms occur. That’s the first atmospheric domino to fall,” says Tom DiLiberto, a NOAA meteorologist.
When El Niño peaks, it is expected to be a strong event, raising sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific by at least 1.5 degrees Celsius. A rebound from which various consequences are expected: from cyclones on the Pacific islands to heavy rains on the South American coast or droughts in Australia.
“The El Niño phenomenon per se will not cause all of these effects, but it increases the chances that they will occur,” secure notice.
The last time an El Niño event occurred, in 2016, the world experienced its hottest year on record. And the omens for this new season are not good. In May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted that the period 2023-2027 would be the hottest on record on Earth, as a result of the combination of El Niño and the global climate crisis –specifically due to the greenhouse effect and its emission of gases. —.
Effects and preparation of countries for El Niño
This weather pattern greatly affects the countries of South America, as it is born in unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific, near the southern coast of the continent. And when it arrives, the countries of the region know that they must prepare.
In the case of South America, El Niño increases rainfall and the risk of flooding – despite the fact that the Amazon registers drier conditions. In this line, Peru has reserved 1,060 million dollars of its funds to deal with its effects and the climate crisis in general. In addition, it declared a state of emergency due to possible rains in 18 of the 25 regions of the country.
“This measure responds to the imminent danger of intense rainfall in the period 2023-2024 and the possible El Niño phenomenon. There is a very high risk,” said the decree of the Government of Peru, published this Thursday.
In contrast to its effects in South America, the effects in the Central Pacific are very different. In India or Australia, a country already prone to forest fires, El Niño increases the risk of drought. While in other regions, such as the Philippines, it generates cyclone alerts.
During the event, the southern United States experiences cooler and wetter weather, but the west and Canada are warmer and drier.
This year, one of the most repeated questions regarding El Niño is: what effects does the climate crisis have on it? According to experts, climate change is doubling its effects from El Niño, but it is not clear if climate change influences the phenomenon itself.
“We are in unprecedented territory,” said L’Heureux in this regard, and assured that it is a matter under investigation at the moment.
The climate crisis does not appear to modify El Niño and La Niña in and of themselves, but it does modify the rise in ocean temperatures globally. And, although many scientists say that this would not affect their normal cycles and periodicity, it does seem to amplify all its effects and could have devastating effects throughout the world.
With Reuters and local media
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