Around thirty family entrepreneurs attended today to a work meeting organized by the family business of Castilla y León (EFCL) in collaboration with Pictet Wealth Management (Pictet WM) with the aim of analyzing the impact it is having on the economy and in the financial markets the new stage that has been opened in the United States with the measures announced by President Donald Trump.
The meeting, held at the Castilla Termal Hotel Monasterio de Valbuena, was attended by César Pérez, Global Investment Director of Pictet WM, who was in charge of offering a strategic vision of the financial perspectives that are opened with the new Trump era in 2025, which he referred to as the year of “Snakes and Ladders. “” We have called it the year of the snakes and stairs game. If you fall into the appropriate box you go to the goal, But you go back if you fall into a bad one, “said César Perez.
Thus, he explained that in 2025 there may be stairs in the form of a decrease in interest rates, tax reduction and deregularization, but warned that “snakes” such as the increase in tariffs, Immigration and geopolitical affairs – Panama, Greenland or Gulf of Mexico – that can limit growth and create volatility.
He assured that this volatility in stock markets has increased with uncertainty about the tariff measures and reduction of government costs of President Trump, and added that Standing fears have fed with signs of underlying price pressures -Without energy prices or fresh foods-, despite the fact that general inflation is softened, while growth slows down and less consumer confidence intensifies.
He explained that, therefore, “we have reduced US GDP growth forecast to 1% of 1.5% This first semester and the S&P index by the end of the year to 5,900 points “and predicted a single trimming of the Federal Reserve type towards June. In this way, with deregulation,” one dAnd the big topics this year is the increase in mergers and acquisitions, “he said.
“Europe is back”
As for the euro zone, the Global Pictet WM Investment Director He said that long -term perspectives have improved for a historical change of fiscal policy. “The positive surprise potential that we identify in December is materializing and strengthening”Said César Pérez, who explained that, in France, the political risk has decreased and in Germany, political parties have agreed to promote fiscal expansion. In addition, world leaders try to end war in Ukraine.
With all this, for investors, “Europe is back”, since a rebound in the economy of the euro zone puIt may cause the European Central Bank to have to be less moderate than expected. The interest rate can drop to 2%.
In his opinion, the reactivation of Europe is part of an extension of the increase in benefits beyond the technological “7 magnificent” and the USA, with historically attractive assessments. “Anyway, It is possible that the application of artificial intelligence generates an increase in productivity. The data is the new oil and the key to companies is to use customer and suppliers data. But you have to clean data, “insisted the global investment director of Pictet WM.
Regarding the Spanish economy, he pointed out that he should continue to evolve better than other homologous countries. “Spain has a greater sector of services and with it lower exposure to commercial tensions “accurate.
In this situation, he insisted that the resilience of the portfolio is crucial and at the same time take advantage of opportunities, with some flexibility to react to unexpected, positive or negative surprises. “Hence the importance of active management,” he said. “In Variable Income we like companies with plenty of liquidity. We have preference for the European, which is still traveled, although we are positive for diversified variable income from the US, “said Pérez, who added that” by sectors we like the financial and also companies that can be the object of mergers and acquisitions globally in all sectors, whose activity is increasing. In addition, we are positive regarding private capital, where we foresee a reactivation. “
Finally, he revealed that “in sovereign debt, in the EU we have preference for the debt from periphery countries, We prefer European business debt. Although the due return differentials are historically adjusted, we do not foresee recession and this debt must remain stable, “concluded César Pérez.
The day was inaugurated by Isidoro Alanís, president of EFCL and Juan Carlos Martín-Aparicio, executive director of Pictet WM and also had the presence of Enrique Sendagorta CEO of Pictet WM Iberia, and Jerónimo Ortiz Urbina, private senior banker of Pictet WM Iberia.
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