Editorial The threat of war is a tough game to play, but the dialogue just needs to be continued

President Sauli Niinistö’s description that Russian President Vladimir Putin has changed is receiving a lot of international attention.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has become a man. This was one of President Sauli Niinistö’s repeated messages in last weekend’s appearances in the international media. Niinistö was interviewed by the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, the American newspaper The New York Times and the German magazine Der Spiegel.

What has changed is Putin’s state of mind and determination. Ukraine, which has been intimidated by the Russian war, can now pay for it. Western democracies have to defend the European security order from demands for which there is no basis.

Niinistö’s assessment of Putin, who has also been called the official Whisperer, is based on a long follow-up. Many other heads of state decided after the occupation of Crimea not to keep in touch with Putin, but Niinistö outlined otherwise. In the past, the presidential relationship was also criticized, but now its value is being measured. Niinistö’s analysis of Russia is in international demand.

Niinistö does not believe that Ukraine will return to the former. It is easy to agree with the assessment. Ukraine is already on its knees, and NATO membership is hardly a dream. Russia does not need to attack to combat it.

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Otherwise, one may ask where Putin would need an open war. Without it, you get more. Putin is already in the spotlight. The Kremlin’s door is open as European leaders listen to what Putin wants. On Tuesday, it will be the turn of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. China’s Russia already got alongside.

If Putin wants a diplomatic solution, for example on arms restrictions, he will get it. The backdrop is likely to be a meeting with US President Joe Biden.

Best the way to avoid war is to continue the dialogue, Niinistö recalled in his interviews. But war is also possible. The United States is now playing at the risk of war. Washington has received various alerts at the pace that it has been difficult to distinguish between them what is at stake in all American operations.

The United States is exceptionally disclosing intelligence on Russia’s intentions. There may be guesses among them. It seems that the United States wants to stay one step ahead of the other side and dictate what is being talked about. It is made clear to the Kremlin that this time Russia will not surprise the West.

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When embassies are closed and citizens are urged to leave the country, the messages are strong to the east, to the west and to Ukraine. The Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs also called on Finns to leave Ukraine.

Americans need to make sure that European allies really take the Russian threat seriously. Sanctions called massive are a deterrent only if the line is not slipped out of self-interest. Indeed, political pressure has now been brought to bear on EU governments to complete national processes before any sanctions are imposed.

Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s (sd) message on the unity of the Prime Minister during Yle’s interview with EU unity. “We are prepared for all situations, all possible scenarios,” Marin said on Sunday.

Marin is again synchronizing the NATO position with the official liturgy: if necessary, Finland could apply for membership quickly. More Niinistö’s analysis of Russia will be heard on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, where Niinistö will participate in a panel discussion on East-West relations.

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Niinistö The description of Putin’s change also shows that the assessment of Finland’s relations with Russia is changing again.

The occupation of Crimea also darkened the perceptions of Russia by traditional Russian understanders. Now Putin is validating even the most unrealistic views.

Russia will use force if it considers it an advantage. Finland has a long common border with Russia, but otherwise no special status. One must be prepared for everything – to fear the worst, but to strive for the better. The best way to avoid war is to continue the dialogue.

The editorials are HS’s statements on a topical issue. The writings are prepared by HS’s editorial staff and reflect the magazine principle.

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