Editorial Russia’s ruthlessness forces us to start by saying that diplomacy is not enough

Editorial|Editorial

Tennis is a great game, as long as you don’t get the ball of the other game, said President Sauli Niinistö in an interview with MTV this week. In the toughest match in world politics, the ball is Ukraine, which has now been hit by the Russian side of the net. The United States and NATO have provided Russia with the written responses it has demanded on the West’s response to demands for so-called security guarantees, NATO status and interests.

Russia knows it is asking unreasonable. The United States and NATO had to agree to written answers as they try to play time for diplomacy. On paper, they put what they have already said otherwise. For example, arms restriction negotiations can be continued with Russia. They also repeated a mantra that Finns have already memorized: every state has the right to decide on its own security solutions.

As expected, the responses from the United States and NATO did not satisfy Russia. It still did not break the negotiation. This week, representatives of Russia, Ukraine, France and the Normandy Group in Paris negotiated a ceasefire agreement with eastern Ukraine, despite the fact that Ukraine and Russia are very far from meeting the terms of the Minsk agreement. Russia has tried to gain influence over the whole of Ukraine through the Minsk agreement, but so far it has failed. Negotiations will continue in two weeks’ time in Berlin.

Feeding turn is President Vladimir Putin. Guesswork about what Putin is doing is overshadowed. Fear is a mighty weapon, and Putin knows the West really doesn’t want a war.

The United States, Britain and the European Union are preparing new talks, but are also preparing to respond to the attack. Attempts are being made to build up obstacles on the Russian road. The EU is slow in any way, and now it still has to catch up with Germany. Russia has also amassed reserves to withstand Western economic sanctions.

Russia’s ruthlessness is forcing us to start saying that something bad will happen in Ukraine in the near future. Russia cannot continue military pressure indefinitely. It would melt credibility.

The bitter experience of the United States has shown that it is not difficult for modern military to defeat the enemy but what happens after that. Ukraine would not be able to stop the Russian invasion, but what would the Russians do with their victory? The troops now brought to Ukraine’s borders would not occupy the whole great country, and it would not be easy anyway.

The United States and the EU, of course, support Ukraine both financially and militarily, but the United States is bringing its troops to NATO’s eastern member states, the Baltics and Romania. NATO does not consider Russia to be a threat to NATO countries, but to strengthen NATO’s own cohesion. In times of crisis, the alliance must show that its own care is taken. So when Russia demands that NATO reduce its troops in the eastern member states, there will be more.

Although the gaze is now on the next input, one may ask how the game can end. There are not many options and they are not good.

Russia is seeking, under military pressure, to bring Ukraine under its close control – if diplomacy does not work, then by fighting. If Russia succeeds in subjugating Ukraine, a new phase will begin again. It also involves deciding how the EU would work with Ukraine’s pro-Russian leadership.

According to Russia, the freezing of the crisis in the current situation could be a loss. In any case, relations with Russia will only become more difficult.

Ukraine has a place of choice. Ukraine needs to assess whether it will achieve a better result through agreement or war. Ukraine may have to make concessions on the status of Donbass, for example. An alternative to concessions could be a war that Ukraine would have to fight alone.

The editorials are HS’s statements on a topical issue. The writings are prepared by HS’s editorial staff and reflect the magazine principle.